The market experienced a week of strong fluctuations with large amplitudes. After 3 consecutive sessions of increase at the beginning of the week, the sharp decline in the session on November 23 caused the VN-Index to lose the 1,100-point mark. Efforts to pull points in the last session of the week were not enough for the main index to regain the 1,100-point mark.
At the end of the week of November 20-24, the VN-Index decreased by 5.58 points, equivalent to 0.51% compared to the end of the previous week to 1,095.6 points. The total average trading value per session during the week reached VND 18,898 billion, down 11% compared to the previous week.
In the context of the market's sharp fluctuations, foreign investors continued to net sell, the positive point is that the net selling value has narrowed compared to last week. Last week, foreign investors net sold 910 billion VND, down 32% compared to the previous week.
In the short term, Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa - Head of Analysis and Research Department of Agriseco Securities Company and Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Analysis of Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company both said that it is not advisable to disburse when short-term risks show signs of increasing again.
Nguoi Dua Tin (NDT): The market experienced a volatile trading week, even with some “turnarounds” during the ATC order matching session. What is your assessment of the developments last week?
Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa: In essence, the ATC periodic order matching session was created to limit the ability of a few individuals/organizations to easily impact the market's closing price by continuously postponing order matching and allowing the accumulation of buy/sell orders at market prices in the last 15 minutes of trading day.
Therefore, the fact that ATC has many strong fluctuations is not necessarily an unusual factor. In my opinion, investors should understand that this is the inherent nature of the stock market.
Market fluctuations last week revolved around the VN-Index retesting supply and demand at the two support/resistance levels of MA200 and MA20. Despite the recovery session at the end of the week, the possibility of returning to an upward trend next week is very low, especially when the market shows signs of breaking the 1,080-point base after continuously failing to break through the 1,120-point resistance zone.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh : Recently, the market often changes suddenly in the last minutes, especially in the ATC session, causing surprise and making investors passive in the ATC session.
In general, these phenomena occurring repeatedly will also make investors more cautious in trading and thus easily lead to low market liquidity in the following sessions.
Last weekend's session saw the phenomenon of "green on the outside, red on the inside", however, I think it is not too negative because the cash flow also has a high spread, especially real estate stocks continue to lead the market's growth and the cash flow is still mainly concentrated in this group of stocks.
VN-Index performance in the week of November 20 - 24 (Source: FireAnt).
Investor : Please tell us about the notable information next week and what is the direction of action for investors at this time, in your opinion?
Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa: In my opinion, the market may experience sideways movements and then large-amplitude pullbacks around support/resistance zones, which may be a recurring scenario in the near future.
In the last week of November, the market has not shown any signs of creating balance at the current price range, so the cash flow may need to wait a bit longer.
On the contrary, fluctuations and price reductions are also opportunities for new cash flows to enter the market at a more reasonable price and shake off investors with weak psychology, especially in the context of mixed macroeconomic factors like the present time.
At the end of the year, investors can assess the growth potential of the economy in the following year. From there, they can make more reasonable valuation prospects and choose investment opportunities more selectively when the market is gradually diversifying.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh : I think investors should not increase their stock proportion when short-term risks show signs of increasing again. At the same time, investors should prioritize holding small and medium-cap stocks when the short-term trend of these two groups of stocks is still positive.
In the short term, cash flows will likely remain cautious with the Fed's monetary policy and the economic recovery in late 2023, as well as geopolitical tensions.
However, the economy is expected to continue to recover and the Fed is at the end of its monetary tightening cycle in 2024, so stocks are still expected to continue their growth momentum.
Investor: In your opinion, which industry group will be the "support" for the market in the coming time?
Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa: It is very difficult to predict the future growth of each industry, however, it can be said that the most difficult period of the steel industry has temporarily passed and the upcoming period is the period of recording recovery.
Steel prices are rising again while low-priced inventories remain and the low base level of 2022 will be a springboard for better business results in the second half of 2023. It is expected that next year, public investment will continue to be the driving force for the steel industry to continue growing.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh : According to my observation, steel prices have shown signs of recovery as real estate is expected to soon recover in 2024 and infrastructure investment is being boosted in China as well as Vietnam.
Personally, I expect steel prices to continue to increase in the coming time and this may have a positive impact on this group of stocks. The main driving force for this group of stocks in 2024 is still the increase in public investment and the recovery of real estate market liquidity in the second half of 2024 .
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