Vietnam's economy in 2024 will recover positively, forecast to exceed the target set by the National Assembly

With the strong determination of the entire political system, at the 8th Session of the 15th National Assembly, many delegates believe that the GDP growth target for 2024 will be achieved and exceeded.

The production line specializes in stamping, casting, plating, and assembling electronic components for the electronics industry.

Reporting at the 8th Session of the 15th National Assembly, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that in 2024, the economy will recover positively, with the whole year estimated to reach about 6.8-7%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly.

Along with that, from the results achieved in the past 10 months, international organizations continue to highly appreciate Vietnam's economic development and growth prospects. Energy security and food security are guaranteed; the labor market has recovered positively.

Bright spots in the “economic picture”

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the macro economy continues to be stable, inflation is under control, economic growth is higher than the set target, major balances are ensured (with high surplus); public debt, government debt, national foreign debt and state budget deficit are well controlled, lower than the permitted limit.

Notably in October, the Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 51.2 points, up from 47.3 points in September and has risen back above the 50-point threshold after suffering disruptions caused by Typhoon Yagi last month... This is considered one of the factors to boost economic growth in the final months of the year.

According to S&P Global, October data showed that Vietnam's manufacturing sector began to recover from the impact of the storm in September, with both output and new orders rising again.

However, some of the impacts of the storms and floods persisted into October, limiting output growth and leading to delays in supplier deliveries and increased work in progress. The rate of increase in both input costs and output prices accelerated but remained modest.

According to the Earning Insight 2024 Annual Report recently released by Vietnam Report Joint Stock Company, business sentiment towards economic growth prospects for the whole year of 2024 is clearly improving.

Growth expectations are gradually shifting from modest to more positive scenarios, as reflected in the survey results recently conducted by Vietnam Report Joint Stock Company.

Vietnam’s economic outlook for 2024 appears brighter. The proportion of businesses expecting growth of 6% - 6.5% and above 6.5% has increased sharply; even higher than the forecast at the beginning of the year of 17.6%.

Citing forecast data from international organizations, Mr. Vu Dang Vinh, General Director of Vietnam Report, said that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also just adjusted Vietnam's GDP forecast, expected to reach 6% in 2024 and continue to improve to 6.2% in 2025. Or the World Bank (WB) forecasts that Vietnam's GDP growth will reach 6.1% in 2024 and increase to 6.5% in 2025.

Meanwhile, UOB Bank has revised up its full-year 2024 growth forecast to 6.4%, much higher than its previous forecast of 5.9%. These figures are all close to the official growth target set by the Vietnamese National Assembly of 6%-6.5%.

Pointing out one of the highlights of 2024, delegate Nguyen Thi Thuy (Bac Kan delegation) said that in 2024, Vietnam's economy is likely to achieve and exceed all 15/15 targets, infrastructure will have breakthroughs, digital transformation, digital government, digital economy will have positive highlights...

Delegate Nguyen Thi Thuy clearly stated that "people and businesses feel very confident about the new era, the era of national growth."

However, in general, along with the optimistic trend, there is still a difference in the forecasts of enterprises, due to the uneven recovery in economic sectors. In fact, in September, there were still 4,233 enterprises registering to temporarily suspend business for a period of time, up 2.6% over the same period in 2023; 7,410 enterprises stopped operating pending dissolution procedures, up 40.5%, 1,605 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, up 26.8%, showing that the pressure on enterprises is still great.

The business community also recognizes that there are still many risks and challenges that can affect growth targets, so it is necessary to take strategic steps and deploy appropriate solutions to stimulate and take advantage of opportunities, and firmly overcome difficulties.

Along with the outlook, Vietnam Report's report also recorded the opinions of businesses when expressing concerns about some risks of persistent challenges related to prolonged and unpredictable geopolitical instability, changes in trade policies in some economies after the election, competition between major powers in trade and technology...

In addition to the achieved results, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung also pointed out the limitations, shortcomings, difficulties and challenges in macroeconomic stability; production and business activities; bad debt; disbursement of public investment capital; compensation, site clearance and resettlement; institutions and laws; decentralization and delegation of power; quality of human resources...

Remove bottlenecks

To achieve the economic growth target in 2024, in the last months of the year, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that he has proposed that the Government focus on 6 key solutions, in which the first and most important solution is to continue to improve institutions and consider this a breakthrough solution of breakthroughs.

“Institutions are the bottleneck of bottlenecks, but if they can be resolved, they will become the breakthrough of breakthroughs,” Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung affirmed.

Along with that, the next solutions are to focus on removing difficulties and obstacles for land projects; promote the development of the real estate market; promote investment resources of the economy, in which public investment is determined to lead private investment, selectively attract FDI capital (focusing on large projects, high-tech projects, attracting strategic investors); promote new growth drivers such as innovation, digital economy, green economy, new industries...

Along with the above solutions, in the Government's October 2024 directive, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also signed Official Dispatch No. 103/CD-TTg dated October 7, 2024 on supporting businesses to overcome difficulties and promote production and business activities in late 2024 and the following years.

The Prime Minister requested that ministries, agencies and localities, in the process of building and promulgating policies, need to create a favorable environment to help businesses develop, including small and medium-sized enterprises, so that this type of business can grow and develop.

At the same time, encourage large enterprises to support and promote small and medium enterprises to create domestic value chains and develop domestic supporting industries. Support policies need to be practical and effective for enterprises to compete fairly and effectively among regions; research on supporting cost reduction for enterprises to improve competitiveness.

In addition, the Prime Minister urged to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital in the last months of the year. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh signed Official Dispatch No. 104/CD-TTg dated October 8, 2024, urging to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital in the last months of 2024.

The Prime Minister requested ministries, central and local agencies, according to their assigned functions, tasks and authorities, to closely follow the directions of the Government and the Prime Minister, especially Directive No. 26/CT-TTg dated August 8, 2024 of the Prime Minister, to strengthen discipline and order, promptly remove bottlenecks and obstacles in implementation, and promote disbursement of public investment capital in 2024...

In order to promote the recovery of agricultural production after storm No. 3, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh signed Official Dispatch No. 108/CD-TTg dated October 18, 2024 on promoting the recovery of agricultural production after storm No. 3.

The Prime Minister requested the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development to direct the organization of working groups, mobilize experts, professional forces, and grassroots agricultural extension officers to visit each household and production facility damaged by storms and floods to directly guide people to restore production...

With the direction and high determination of the entire political system, at the 8th Session of the 15th National Assembly, many delegates believe that the GDP growth target in 2024 will be completed and exceeded.

National Assembly Delegate Tran Anh Tuan (Ho Chi Minh City delegation) said that although in the current context, Vietnam is greatly affected by external factors, by political conflicts, slowing world consumption demand... but the high political determination of all levels, sectors, goals and targets of 2024, in which 15 targets are all achieved, with a GDP growth rate of 7% is a high possibility, showing that the economy is recovering quickly, with good resilience.

"In the context of the recent storm No. 3 (Yagi storm), Vietnam has overcome it very well and is currently showing positive signs in the last quarter of the year. I am very proud, honored, and have confidence in the growth and quality of management of the Government and authorities at all levels," delegate Tran Anh Tuan emphasized.

Source: VNA

Source: https://baophutho.vn/kinh-te-viet-nam-nam-2024-phuc-hoi-tich-cuc-du-bao-vuot-muc-tieu-quoc-hoi-de-ra-221954.htm