According to many experts, the real estate market in 2025 is supported by many new regulations, so there will be many fluctuations, with different development scenarios.
Mr. Tran Kim Chung - former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management - commented that in 2024, the real estate market has recorded a difference. In particular, the apartment segment has a "price increase". If mid-range apartments before the 2022-2023 period fluctuated around 35-40 million VND/m2, in 2024 the price increased sharply to 65-70 million VND/m2, especially in Hanoi.
The land market also recorded a "fever" in prices in some suburban areas of Hanoi such as: In Hoai Duc district, land prices increased by 81%; Dong Anh district increased by 53%; Thanh Oai district increased by 90% compared to the beginning of 2023.
Meanwhile, the resort apartment market (condotel) shows signs of saturation, supply increases but consumption decreases sharply.
Therefore, Mr. Chung predicts that from 2025-2030, the real estate market will likely have 3 scenarios.
In the neutral scenario, the market will develop vigorously in all segments, without any extreme outbreaks. According to Mr. Chung, this is also the most likely scenario.
In the unfavorable scenario, the market will be divided into different segments, with some segments remaining stagnant. This is the least likely scenario.
In the positive scenario, the market will explode. " This scenario is possible but not big ," said Mr. Chung.
According to Mr. Chung, in the coming time, the authorities need to complete and synchronize the legal system related to real estate, promote procedures to bring the law into life; as well as soon issue documents guiding the laws on land, housing, real estate business...
Meanwhile, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice President of the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA), President of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS) - also predicted that 2025 will be the first year that the market supply will be unblocked, although not entirely. Projects that meet legal regulations and have good investor capacity will be unblocked to bring products to the market, thereby helping the market balance supply and demand.
Regarding selling prices, from the end of 2024 to the end of 2025, the provisions of the new law have not been fully applied, so land prices are expected to remain at a reasonable level. However, in the period of 2026 - 2027, if there is still no appropriate adjustment from now until then, it may put pressure on prices.
“ Therefore, I propose two scenarios. If we regulate well, the market will continue to be stable. But if there is no good technical adjustment, real estate prices may be pushed to higher, more unreasonable levels, and the market will be difficult again ,” Mr. Dinh stated his opinion.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Van Khanh, Deputy General Director of Gamuda Land, said that in the period of 2025 - 2026, the real estate market will certainly have a delay in recovery. Therefore, Ms. Khanh predicted that the supply in these two years will be higher than in 2024, but not to the point of excess.
Regarding demand, the price level has been adjusted compared to before. Investors need to have more flexible payment policies, suitable for each type of home buyer.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of PropertyGuru Vietnam, analyzed: Within 2 years, the Vietnamese real estate market may go through the following stages: reversal, exploration, consolidation, prosperity and stability. At each stage, buyers will prioritize different factors when choosing.
Specifically, by the end of 2024, the market is in the exploration phase, buyers prioritize certain factors such as serving real housing needs, clear legal status, good financial support policies, along with stable rental yields and optimizing costs. At this stage, apartments attract a lot of attention and record the best liquidity among real estate types.
Entering the consolidation period expected to start in the first quarter of 2025, buyers and investors will be more confident with financial and legal factors but still prioritize products that serve real needs and bring good cash flow. At this time, if monetary factors are more favorable, high-cost types such as private houses and townhouses will gradually improve in transaction volume.
From the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025, people will pay more attention to investment needs and price growth rates, and will not place too much emphasis on selling price and legal factors as in the gloomy market period. This will be the time when land and villas gradually regain their advantage and have better liquidity.
It is expected that from the beginning of 2026, the Vietnamese real estate market will enter a stable cycle, with buyers prioritizing investment opportunities in real estate types with high price increases, small quantities but attracting much attention.
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