Robusta market is under great pressure as exporters sell heavily in fear of further price declines. It is predicted that coffee prices may continue to decline slightly in the short term due to the remaining high supply pressure. The latest forecast shows that robusta prices may fall by another $100-150/ton if buying power does not return soon.
Coffee price today 3/3/2025
World coffee prices fell sharply last week. One of the reasons for the decline was the devaluation of the Brazilian currency against the USD. The continuous decline of the Real for 8 consecutive sessions has encouraged Brazilian farmers to sell their products. The weakening of the Real during the week caused liquidation of long positions in futures contracts, pushing coffee prices to a 1-month low in the middle of last week.
For the week, the price of Robusta coffee futures for delivery in May 2025 decreased by 387 USD/ton. The price of Arabica coffee futures for delivery in May 2025 decreased by 16.2 cents/lb.
Domestic coffee prices today, March 3, are still trading in the range of 127,500 - 129,500 VND/kg. Thus, domestic coffee prices have lost an average of 4,500 - 5,000 VND/kg.
Arabica coffee prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks, which is believed to be due to the plunging Real. The eight-day decline in the Real has prompted Brazilian farmers to sell their crops, causing Arabica prices to fall by 16.2 cents to close at 373.05 cents/lb, down from 389.25 cents last week.
Robusta coffee also ended the week down compared to the previous week, marking the failure of this coffee to hold on to the price of 5,717 USD/ton last week to close this week's session at only 5,330 USD/ton.
In the medium term, the market may recover, but there are still many risks, especially in the context of the unstable global economy. A Reuters survey shows that Arabica coffee prices could fall by about 30% by the end of 2025, to $6,200/ton.
So it can be said that the decline in coffee prices is not due to any improvement in supply because the Robusta inventory monitored by ICE did not increase but fell to a two-month low last weekend at 4,247 lots. In addition, the amount of Arabica coffee also fell to a nine-and-a-half-month low last Tuesday at 758,514 bags. This is understandable, because where is the world going to get coffee to improve supply at this time?
In addition, the new economic policies of the US have also had a significant impact on the world financial market, including the impact on global coffee prices.
Commenting on the market this week, experts said that the downward trend still prevails as the world's monetary and financial markets remain unstable. After 2 weeks of sharp decline, the amount of short-buying on the 2 exchanges is still high.
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| Domestic coffee prices on March 1 continued to decrease by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Coffeeam) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session last weekend (February 28), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 continued to decrease by 46 USD, trading at 5,330 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 decreased by 47 USD, trading at 5,290 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange, delivery term May 2025 continued to decrease by 0.55 cents, trading at 373.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, delivery term July 2025 decreased by 0 cents, trading at 364.75 cents/lb. Trading volume is high.
Domestic coffee prices on March 1 continued to decrease by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
With demand outstripping supply and climate change reshaping growing conditions, the coffee industry faces an uncertain future. By 2040, the world could face a robusta coffee shortage of up to 35 million 60-kilogram bags, according to the non-governmental organization World Coffee Research, partly due to climate change and consumer trends. Carlin said there is not enough investment in coffee farming or infrastructure.
ABC News (Australia) has just published an article saying that in Australia, where “coffee culture” is deeply ingrained, consumers have been warned that the price of their morning latte could increase to 8 AUD (5 USD), or even double digits.
The roots of the problem may lie on the other side of the world.
Brazil - the country that produces Australia's most popular arabica coffee beans - has faced extreme weather in recent years, including drought, excessive rain and temperature changes that have reduced harvests.
According to United Nations (UN) data, in 2022, Australia imported the majority of its coffee from Brazil, followed by Colombia, Vietnam and Honduras. Although Australia is surrounded by coffee-growing countries such as Papua New Guinea (PNG), Indonesia and Vietnam, Caleb Holstein, co-founder of coffee roasting company Greensquare, explains that "finding other sources of coffee at better prices is not easy".
In Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest coffee producer, farmers are working to improve quality and productivity. But expanding their coffee production is proving difficult.
Despite this, Ms Manove – who runs Blue Mama Commodities in PNG – remains optimistic that the world will always love coffee and that PNG can grow some of the best coffee. However, she admits that PNG needs the tools and knowledge to continue to grow the coffee industry.
As demand outstrips supply and climate change reshapes growing conditions, the global coffee industry faces an uncertain future.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-332025-gia-ca-phe-sut-giam-manh-boi-ly-do-khong-phai-cung-cau-robusta-con-giam-con-sot-la-o-australia-306083.html
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