For decades, the transatlantic alliance has been a cornerstone of Western security and prosperity. Formed in the post-World War II international order, the partnership has served not only to promote collective defense through NATO, but also to reinforce shared democratic values and the economic interdependence of many nations.
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| The article "The Trump Effect: Recalibrating the Transatlantic Alliance" was published on Modern Diplomacy on March 2. (Screenshot) |
Instability in succession
In the above article, Dr. John Calabrese asserts that President Donald Trump's "America First" ideology has long signaled a strategy that prioritizes Washington's interests, even at the expense of long-standing alliances. While this approach was previously limited to domestic policy, it is now shaping US foreign policy as well. As the Ukraine conflict enters its third year, the US and the EU are increasingly showing differences in their approaches to the crisis.
Dr. John Calabrese pointed out that President Donald Trump's statements on the Russia-Ukraine conflict have gone against the consistent view since World War II that America's security is tied to Europe's stability, showing a "seismic" change in Washington's foreign policy - a reality that "old continent" leaders are increasingly unable to ignore.
President Trump has blamed Kiev for starting the conflict, calling his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and warning that if peace is not achieved, the country will suffer dire consequences.
Mr Trump sent a delegation to Saudi Arabia to negotiate with Russian officials without the participation of Ukraine or Europe, and to offer concessions to Moscow.
In addition, the US leader also proposed a deal in which Washington would receive a portion of Ukraine's rare earth and other mineral resources in exchange for aid. These moves have seriously undermined European confidence in the US commitment to the post-World War II security order.
In addition, in a speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, Vice President JD Vance “rebuked” European democracies for “deviating from shared values.” This move further emphasized a clear pivot in US policy, especially with regard to the transatlantic alliance.
The history of the transatlantic partnership is certainly not without its crises. From the Suez Canal crisis of 1956, to the nuclear strategy debate of the 1960s, to the Euromissile standoff in the 1980s, to the standoff over the Kosovo conflict in 1999, to the US-led war in Iraq in 2003, transatlantic tensions are nothing new.
However, Dr. John Calabrese emphasized that previous disputes, while serious, were mainly about policy differences and could be resolved. In contrast, the Trump administration’s approaches now signal a profound shift toward an increasingly fragmented world order, where power can override shared values.
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| During a heated meeting at the White House on February 28, US President Donald Trump blamed Kiev for starting the conflict. (Source: AFP) |
Test for the "old continent"
European leaders are scrambling to adapt to the current volatile landscape, with some calling for greater strategic autonomy to counter the uncertainties posed by Washington’s unpredictable policies, according to Dr. John Calabrese.
This geopolitical uncertainty comes at a time when Europe is trying to bolster its defense capabilities. The US maintains a significant military presence in Europe, with around 100,000 troops stationed in several countries, particularly Germany.
A recent report estimates that the continent would need an additional 300,000 troops and $262 billion in investment to fully replace Washington’s role in providing security. It can be said that in the near future, Europe will still have to rely significantly on the US “security umbrella”.
But even as Europe seeks to bolster its defense posture, it faces economic headwinds, the expert said. Imposing retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. protectionism may not yield the expected benefits, as many European countries remain heavily dependent on Washington both as an export market and as a source of critical goods.
The threat of inflation and a trade war looms, further complicating the region’s economic landscape. Reaching EU-wide consensus on such economic measures is also unlikely to be easy, and unilateral action could deepen internal divisions within the bloc.
As the Trump administration pursues negotiations with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine, Europe continues to take tougher measures. The European Council has approved a 16th round of economic and personal sanctions targeting key sectors of the Russian economy.
In the short term, if a ceasefire is reached, Britain and France are considering deploying troops as part of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. However, the effectiveness of such an initiative remains to be seen without US backing, and it is unclear whether Washington is willing to provide such support.
Above all, Dr. John Calabrese asserted, these diplomatic moves, along with Mr. Trump's controversial approach, further highlight the growing "phase difference" in US-European relations and increase concerns in the "old continent" about Washington's commitment.
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| The US currently maintains a significant military force in Europe, with about 100,000 troops stationed in many countries. (Source: CNN) |
In parallel, Europe is stepping up efforts to strengthen its defense capabilities. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed the idea of a “defense investment exemption,” which would allow member states to finance military projects without violating EU fiscal limits.
However, the feasibility of such measures remains questionable due to the fragmentation of the European defence industry and the challenges of harmonising national military capabilities.
On the economic front, EU officials have been in Washington trying to avert a trade war, but appear to have achieved little significant results.
A meeting scheduled for February 26 between EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was abruptly cancelled, citing “scheduling issues”.
Now, the fact that Europe can no longer rely on the US as before has pushed the "old continent" to seek more independent paths in both defense and economic policy.
Dr. John Calabrese mentioned the concept of “de-risking” in the article. This concept was originally mentioned by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen to regulate cooperation between the EU and China, and can now be applied to relations with the US. It is necessary to understand that de-risking does not mean severing relations, but diversifying defense resources and economic partners, focusing on reducing dependence on the US market, strengthening cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region and investing in domestic defense technology.
However, while the need to reduce risk is a strategic imperative, the road ahead remains bumpy and challenging. Internal divisions, financial pressures and inertia in European bureaucracies raise deep doubts about the possibility of a comprehensive transformation in the near future.
Break or Reshape
According to Dr. John Calabrese, the US-European alliance can eventually move towards a state of balance, with a less dependent Europe. If the US continues to move towards isolationism, Europe may be forced to build an autonomous foreign policy, not only to protect its own interests, but also to ensure the stability of the global order.
However, if the transatlantic alliance becomes increasingly divided, especially in its approach to China and Russia, this strategic vacuum could be exploited by rival powers. This will force European leaders to build a resilient and diversified foreign policy.
Furthermore, Dr. John Calabrese emphasized, the Trump administration's support for far-right nationalist movements in Europe is creating an ideological challenge to the liberal democratic order.
This rift is not only a strategic issue but also affects Europe's identity as a bastion of democracy, social welfare and transnational cooperation.
In the face of this ideological interference, Europe is likely to strengthen its commitment to democratic values, even as strategic calculations push the continent to pursue greater autonomy.
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| While it is unlikely that the US and Europe will completely separate due to their deep economic and security ties, the alliance could still move towards a state of balance, with a less dependent Europe. (Source: Voxeurop) |
The long-term future of the transatlantic relationship remains uncertain. If future US administrations adjust their policies and reaffirm their commitment to traditional alliances, the possibility of reconciliation remains open. On the other hand, if the trend of strategic retrenchment and unilateral coercive measures continues, the US-Europe relationship will gradually shift toward greater autonomy and less interdependence. In this context, the sustainability of the alliance will depend on Europe’s ability to adapt to a changing geopolitical environment while maintaining its core values.
In short, the future of the transatlantic relationship is at a critical juncture. The current turmoil is not simply a matter of policy disagreements but also reflects a profound strategic shift. If Washington continues to prioritize its own interests, Europe will be forced to find an independent path, even though that path is fraught with challenges. The future of the transatlantic relationship will depend on the adaptability of the "old continent" and the direction of the United States, whether to continue to engage or gradually move away from each other.
(*) Dr. John Calabrese is a lecturer in international relations at American University in Washington, DC. He is also editor of The Middle East Journal and a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI). Previously, Dr. Calabrese served as Director of MEI's Middle East-Asia Project (MAP).
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