Robusta coffee prices hit a new high, exceeding $5,800 per ton.

Closing out last week's trading session, Robusta coffee prices reached an all-time high, surpassing $5,800 per ton on February 12th, while Arabica maintained its impressive upward trend.

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) reported that the global raw materials market experienced significant volatility during the past trading week (February 10-16). The raw materials sector continued to be a highlight, with prices for all nine commodities in the group rising sharply. Coffee, in particular, attracted strong investment. Additionally, the metals market also saw a positive trend driven by the combined effects of macroeconomic factors and supply and demand. At the close of the week, buying pressure dominated, pushing the MXV-Index up nearly 1.4% to 2,349 points.

MXV-Index

Robusta coffee prices hit a new high.

According to MXV, the industrial raw materials market was in strong green after the close of the past trading week. Notably, the coffee market continued to experience significant volatility. Robusta prices reached an all-time high, surpassing $5,800 per ton on February 12th, while Arabica maintained its impressive upward trend. These high prices were sustained for several days afterward.

Industrial raw material price list

Right at the opening of the week, the market witnessed a sharp correction, with Arabica falling 3.6% to $9,115/ton and Robusta slightly decreasing 0.3% to $5,653/ton. This correction stemmed from profit-taking by investors after a prolonged upward trend.

However, the market quickly recovered and returned to an upward trend on February 12th, with Robusta rising 2.9% to $5,817 per ton – its highest level ever – while Arabica surged 4.44% to $9,519 per ton. The sharp increase in Arabica trading costs on the ICE exchange contributed to the record price surge for 14 consecutive sessions.

Robusta coffee prices hit an all-time high, surpassing $5,800 per ton. Photo: Hien Mai

The rally was driven by concerns about tight supply after Hedgepoint Global Markets lowered its forecast for Brazil's 2025-2026 crop year to 64.1 million bags. Notably, Arabica production – which accounts for 70% of total output – is projected to reach only 41.1 million bags, down 4.9% from the previous crop year.

The supply shortage is clearly reflected in inventory figures. Robusta inventories have fallen to a five-week low of just 260,880 bags, after reaching a four-month high of 276,180 bags on January 31st. Similarly, Arabica inventories have also declined from a peak of 993,562 bags (January 6th) to 841,795 bags – the lowest level in over three months.

In addition, data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) shows that green coffee exports in January reached only 3.98 million bags, down 1.6% compared to the same period last year. This marks the second consecutive month of decline in exports from the world's largest Arabica coffee supplier.

Adverse weather conditions also contributed to the price increase, with the latest report from Somar Meteorologia showing that rainfall in Minas Gerais – Brazil's largest Arabica coffee-growing region – reached only 53.9 mm last week, 15% lower than the historical average. This information further exacerbated concerns about the crop outlook in the world's leading Arabica coffee producer.

Citigroup assesses that coffee prices may have peaked as demand begins to slow and supply from other markets gradually increases. However, low liquidity in recent sessions suggests that the market may continue to experience significant volatility in the short term.

Looking at the medium term, Hedgepoint forecasts Brazilian export volumes for the 2025-2026 season to fall to 47.6 million bags, 0.8 million bags less than the current season. This trend, coupled with severe supply shortages, could continue to put upward pressure on prices in the coming months, although the rate of increase may slow due to demand adjusting downwards in response to high prices.

A notable development in the industrial raw materials market was the sharp 5.48% increase in the price of 11-count sugar, reaching over $450 per ton, setting a new high since mid-December 2024. Prices were supported by news that Indonesia plans to urgently import 200,000 tons of raw sugar. The upward trend was further bolstered by signs of a slowdown in exports from India, the world's second-largest sugar producer.

The metals market is booming.

MXV reports that the metals market recovered significantly last week, with buying pressure dominating.

In the precious metals market, at the close of trading on Friday (February 14th), the price of silver continued to rise to $32.86 per ounce, equivalent to a 1.27% increase. Although platinum fell slightly by 0.16% to $1,019 per ounce at the end of the week, its price remains in a high range.

Metal price list

Over the past week, a series of economic data releases and changes in US tariff policy have drawn capital into the precious metals market.

Notably, on February 12th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics also released its January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This report revealed that US inflation rose 0.5%, surpassing both the 0.4% increase in December and the market forecast of 0.3%. Concerns continued to mount following US President Donald Trump's announcement of retaliatory tariffs on countries that tax imports from the US. In addition, the US also released its January Producer Price Index (PPI), showing a 0.4% increase in producer prices that month.

The release of strong US economic data has caused fluctuations in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. This reflects continued strong demand for safe-haven assets, particularly from central banks worldwide, amid concerns that new US trade tariffs could dampen global economic growth. These factors have kept precious metal prices firmly in high territory over the past week.

Regarding base metals, the COMEX copper market had a vibrant trading week, closing with a sharp 1.65% increase to $10,283 per ton. Iron ore also recorded a slight increase of 0.07% to $106.79 per ton, 7% higher than the January price. According to MXV, recovering demand in China after the Lunar New Year holiday, combined with mining giant BHP's forecast that global copper demand could increase by up to 70% by 2050, contributed to the rise in copper prices last week.

Meanwhile, severe storms in Australia reduced iron ore imports into China during the first two months of the year, with an estimated drop of more than 10% year-on-year to 191.7 million tonnes. As a supplier of nearly two-thirds of China's iron ore needs, concerns about supply disruptions from Australia have supported rising iron ore prices. However, India's consideration of imposing tariffs of 15-25% on Chinese steel could force factories in that country to cut production, leading to weaker demand for iron ore and hindering further price increases.

Prices of some other goods

Agricultural product price list

Energy price list

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-ca-phe-robusta-cham-muc-cao-nhat-vuot-5800-usdtan-374146.html