The latest research from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) shows that in Vietnam, prolonged dry weather has caused coffee production to decrease by 20% in the 2023/24 crop year, of which exports decreased by 10% for the second consecutive year.
Coffee price today 3/20/2025
World coffee prices rose simultaneously on both the London and New York exchanges in the second half of the session, after receiving positive signals about interest rates in the US economy. Robusta coffee prices increased by 58 USD/ton to 5,527 USD/ton and Arabica increased by 7.2 US cents/pound.
Domestic coffee prices today are trading in the range of 133,900 - 135,200 VND/kg.
Brokerage firm Escritório Carvalhaes noted in its weekly newsletter that fundamentals remain unchanged and price trends – both in New York and London – also reflect the current uncertainties in world markets, due to the sweeping changes in economic and political policy adopted by the new US president in the first 50 days of his term.
After two days of policy meetings, on March 19, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. This move shows that the Fed wants to wait for further impacts from President Donald Trump's economic policies.
Meanwhile, Brazil's real currency rose to a four-and-a-half-month high against the dollar, discouraging Brazilian coffee producers from exporting, also contributing to a strong recovery in arabica coffee prices, amid rumors of a lack of irrigation water in the country's key growing regions.
Weather trends in Brazil continue to dominate the market. All major producing regions in Brazil recorded significantly lower cumulative rainfall in March than the historical average. February also saw below-average rainfall, combined with very high temperatures. The drought will affect not only this year’s harvest but also next year’s, according to analysis by Pine Agronegócios, a commodity brokerage and consultancy.
Also on the weather concerns, Indonesia’s coffee output in 2023/24 is forecast to fall 16.5% due to heavy rains damaging coffee cherries. In Brazil, hot and dry weather has also caused coffee output to fall short of forecasts, leading to a 1.6% drop in exports in 2023/24.
According to Pine Agronegócios, although the fundamentals for the 2026-2027 crop are yet to be determined, it is safe to say that we will enter next winter with the lowest cumulative rainfall on record for arabica growing areas.
Robusta coffee gains were capped, however, by rising supplies, with ICE-monitored robusta inventories rising to a one-week high of 4,336 lots. In contrast, ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a three-and-a-half-week low of 782,648 bags on March 19.
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| Domestic coffee prices on March 19 did not fluctuate much in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Newtimes) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on March 19, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 increased by 58 USD, trading at 5,527 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 increased by 57 USD, trading at 5,509 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the May 2025 delivery period increasing by 7.25 cents, trading at 391.05 cents/lb. The July 2025 delivery period increased by 6.75 cents, trading at 384.10 cents/lb. Average trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on March 19 did not fluctuate much in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
In 2025, many organizations and industry experts predict that the global coffee market will experience notable fluctuations in supply and demand:
Global coffee production is forecast to decline slightly, mainly due to adverse weather conditions in major producing countries. In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, a prolonged drought has negatively affected crop yields, leading to a decline in Arabica coffee production. Although Brazil’s robusta coffee production is expected to increase to 24.5 million bags in 2025/26 from 21 million bags in the previous season, Brazil’s total coffee production is still expected to decline to 64.6 million bags from 66.4 million bags in 2024/25.
In Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta coffee, output is expected to increase to 29 million bags in the 2025/2026 crop year from 28 million bags in the previous crop year.
However, global coffee demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million bags, with most of this increase coming from markets such as the European Union (EU), the United States and China.
Therefore, the price trend has increased sharply in 2024 due to limited supply and high demand. However, in 2025, the coffee market will still face many complex fluctuations. Coffee prices are unlikely to achieve the impressive growth momentum as in 2024, but the general price level will still remain high compared to previous years, likely fluctuating between 110,000 - 120,000 VND/kg.
There are also some predictions of a possible decline in coffee prices. Some forecasts suggest that Arabica coffee prices could fall 30% by the end of 2025 due to high prices reducing demand and forecasts of a bumper crop in Brazil next year.
Overall, in 2025, the coffee market is expected to continue to face many supply challenges, while demand continues to increase, leading to prices remaining high.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2032025-gia-ca-phe-dong-loat-di-len-san-luong-khong-nhu-du-bao-nhung-bien-dong-dang-chu-y-tren-thi-truong-nam-2025-308190.html
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