How will the F-16s operate if they are given to Ukraine?

Ukraine is in dire need of F-16 fighters to change the game (Photo: Sky News).

The F-16 is a multi-role jet fighter that has seen dozens of wars and is used by more than 20 countries. For Ukraine, the largest user of the Soviet-era MiG-29, the F-16 is an extremely meaningful upgrade.

It will improve the Ukrainian Air Force's ability to support ground forces and intercept Russian bombers before they can attack military or civilian targets.

In August 2023, Washington gave its allies the green light to supply F-16s to Ukraine. A month earlier, 11 countries had formed a “fighter coalition” to provide the aircraft and prepare Ukraine and its pilots to fly them. To date, 14 countries have joined the coalition, led by the United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands.

The exact number to be delivered has not yet been determined. The Netherlands and Denmark will provide at least 37 aircraft, while Norway and Belgium have also pledged to supply them. Deliveries will run from 2024 to 2025, assuming pilot training programs are completed.

Rapidly build the foundation

There are three separate programs for pilots at different levels. Earlier this month, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yuri Ihnat said the first six pilots were flying F-16s in Denmark and would be ready for combat in the spring. Another training course is in Arizona, where cadets are expected to graduate later this year. The least experienced group is training in the UK, and may not be ready until 2025.

At the same time, Ukrainian ground technicians are also learning how to maintain aircraft.

F-16s require specialized infrastructure and logistics. For example, they need smoother runways. This is one of the biggest challenges, because how will Ukraine resurface its runways without attracting Russian attention?

“Airfields must be protected from air strikes, which means deploying air defense systems,” Viktor Kevliuk, an expert at the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategy, told the Kyiv Independent .

"The allies should also provide us with air-to-air missiles for combat because the Soviet missiles are not suitable for this aircraft," he added. The weapons, along with all fuel reserves, must be stored in a safe place and carefully guarded. "This is a rather long process."

The jets will need a lot of spare parts, but Ukraine certainly won't have to worry much about this as the US has committed to providing them in full.

US Air Force F-16 fighter jets perform a spectacular "elephant walk" at Spangdahlem air base in Germany on October 1, 2019 (Photo: US Airforce).

Estimated delivery time

The first batch of aircraft could come from the Netherlands. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on December 22, 2023, that his government had begun preparing 18 fighter jets. A day later, a Dutch Defense Ministry spokesperson told NOS that more would likely arrive. However, there have been no further updates since then.

Denmark had committed to delivering six aircraft by the end of 2023, but the delivery date has reportedly been pushed back by six months. Copenhagen said it would deliver a total of 19 F-16s.

Danish and Dutch officials said the delivery schedule depends on the readiness of Ukraine's infrastructure and pilots, among other factors.

The Belgian defense minister has promised to deliver some of the aircraft by 2025. According to Norwegian broadcaster NRK , Norway plans to send between five and 10 F-16s, but the total number and delivery schedule have not been set.

Experts told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine could have at least some F-16s operational by late spring or early summer.

Is the F-16 a "game changer"?

Experts say the F-16 would provide Ukraine with important capabilities it currently lacks.

“With some careful planning… I think it’s possible that at least in the early stages, before the Russians understand what’s going on, Ukraine could shoot down Russian military aircraft by sending F-16s to the right place at the right time,” said Peter Layton, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute and a former Royal Australian Air Force officer.

The AMRAAM air-to-air missile has a longer range than the weapons on Ukraine’s MiG-29s, but that will only be a tactical advantage until the Russians adapt by pulling their aircraft further back from the front line, Layton said.

Expert Kevliuk noted that Ukrainian and Russian fighters have engaged in little air combat over the past year as both sides have been trying to preserve them.

Russian aircraft mainly attack ground targets. According to Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, the F-16s can protect Ukrainian airspace, reducing pressure on ground-based air defenses.

“With Russia targeting Ukrainian cities, there is a real danger that Ukrainian air defense systems could run out of missiles trying to repel every barrage of Russian drones and missiles… If that happens, Russia could gain air superiority over Ukraine by default, and they would be able to bring the full firepower of their air force to bear on the battlefield,” Grieco said.

"To avoid a bad outcome, Ukraine needs to be more selective in responding to these Russian attacks, or it needs to add more missiles to deter these attacks. The F-16 has the potential to be useful in this role," the expert added.

According to Mr. Layton, to attack, the F-16 can also attack ground targets, helping Ukraine "open the way" into Russian-held areas by dropping high-explosive bombs, although this will not last long because this type of aircraft cannot carry a large bomb load.

To facilitate the F-16's "scoring", she said Ukraine needed to block or destroy Russian air defense systems, such as the S-400 missiles.

"Ukrainian pilots flying F-16s, equipped with anti-radiation missiles, would have to risk operating within the range of the S-400 to lure Russian combat crews into firing... The S-400's range is nearly four times that of the AGM-88 anti-radiation missile, making it an inherently dangerous mission and the loss of Ukrainian F-16s could quickly become unbearable," Grieco said.

In addition, Russian Su-30SM, Su-35 and MiG-31 fighters also pose a significant threat to Ukraine's F-16s.

Moscow is said to be ready to fight the "game changer" F-16 by not only attacking airports but also testing new tactics, actively operating A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft to designate targets, guide fighters and air defense missiles to intercept Ukrainian fighters operating at very long distances.

Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft escorted by MiG-31 fighters (Photo: Telegram).

Commenting on Newsweek , expert Frederik Mertens from the Hague Center for Strategic Studies (Netherlands) said: "In my opinion, Russia's deployment of the A-50 is Russia's deliberate preparation for the upcoming appearance of the F-16."

Russia appears to be trying to gain an advantage in the air war by pushing the Ukrainian air force as far back as possible, he said, “while causing as much attrition as possible before the arrival of the F-16 fighters.”

According to him, Russia seems to hope to be able to attack the F-16 on the ground and in the air as soon as possible, so they have mobilized the A-50 to fly closer to the front line to practice preparation.

Last October, Russia claimed to have shot down “24 Ukrainian planes in five days.” Ukraine has yet to comment on that number.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/f-16-se-tac-chien-the-nao-khi-duoc-cap-cho-ukraine-20240119113741677.htm