Opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese shrimp exports to the US

Mr. Trump's proposal to increase import taxes has caused American businesses to speed up imports to stockpile goods, creating an opportunity for Vietnamese shrimp to be exported to this market.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in October 2024, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US reached more than 80 million USD, up 17% over the same period. In the first 10 months of the year, the cumulative shrimp export turnover to this market reached 646 million USD, up 10%. However, behind these positive numbers are major challenges for the Vietnamese shrimp industry in maintaining and expanding its market share in the US.

The US market is witnessing a decline in shrimp imports from three major suppliers: Ecuador, India and Indonesia. This raises concerns about a possible supply shortage, but also opens up opportunities for other exporters, including Vietnam. The optimistic market sentiment, reduced inventories and the balance of supply and demand are creating conditions for higher import demand from the US in the coming time. Shrimp prices in this market are also expected to improve positively.

US shrimp imports from January 2021 to September 2024. Photo: VASEP

This year, the average export price of Vietnamese shrimp to the US recorded many fluctuations. The price of whiteleg shrimp increased continuously from February to July, then decreased in the third quarter, reaching 9.9 USD/kg in September and increasing again to 10.3 USD/kg in October. For black tiger shrimp, the price was unstable, reaching a peak of 18.9 USD/kg in March before decreasing to 15.2 USD/kg in October. Despite the uneven prices, demand for these products remained high thanks to reasonable average prices, stimulating consumption in the US.

President Donald Trump’s proposal to increase import tariffs on goods entering the US after his re-election, if approved, could prompt US businesses to increase stockpiling of goods before the tariffs take effect. This is a short-term opportunity for the Vietnamese shrimp industry to boost exports. However, this also poses challenges as businesses face risks such as increased transportation costs and unpredictable fluctuations from US trade policy.

On November 19, 2024, the US International Trade Commission (USITC) concluded that the US domestic shrimp industry was injured by shrimp imports from countries such as Ecuador, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. These products were allegedly sold at prices below fair value or were subsidized by the government. This conclusion paved the way for the US Department of Commerce (DOC) to issue anti-dumping and countervailing duties on shrimp imported from these countries. If this is implemented, Vietnamese shrimp exports to the US will face many more difficulties. Exporters are forced to adjust their strategies, focusing on products that are not subject to tariffs or looking for alternative markets.

In the first nine months of 2024, US shrimp imports from Vietnam increased by 9%, while other major suppliers such as Ecuador, India and Indonesia decreased by 8%, 1% and 12%, respectively. Notably, imports of shrimp products from Vietnam increased sharply by 27%, far exceeding the increase from other suppliers. However, shell-on shrimp, steamed shrimp and seasoned shrimp products all recorded declines, reflecting increasingly fierce competition from other suppliers.

To take advantage of opportunities and face challenges, the Vietnamese shrimp industry needs to focus on improving product quality, ensuring compliance with strict US food safety standards, and diversifying products and export markets. Strengthening negotiations and coordination with relevant authorities is also important to minimize the impact of unfavorable tax policies.

Despite many difficulties ahead, the US market remains a bright spot for Vietnamese shrimp exports thanks to high demand and improved selling prices. Flexibility and appropriate adjustment strategies will be key factors for businesses to maintain and develop market share in the coming time.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/co-hoi-va-thach-thuc-cho-tom-viet-nam-xuat-khau-sang-my-360691.html