2025 is the final year of the Economic Development Plan for the 2021-2025 period, a pivotal year for a new era with comprehensive reform plans and also marks the 25th anniversary of the official operation of the Vietnamese stock market.
2025 is the final year of the Economic Development Plan for the 2021-2025 period, a pivotal year for a new era with comprehensive reform plans and also marks the 25th anniversary of the official operation of the Vietnamese stock market.
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| Investor sentiment is improving thanks to expectations that Vietnam's stock market will be upgraded. Photo : Duc Thanh |
Waiting for market upgrade
Assessing the stock market, Dr. Ho Sy Hoa, Director of Research and Investment Consulting at DNSE Securities Joint Stock Company, said that the Vietnamese stock market has made great strides and achieved many remarkable results over the past 25 years, promoting its role as an important medium- and long-term capital mobilization channel for the economy.
Over the past quarter century, the VN-Index has continuously peaked, reaching 1,498.28 points at the end of 2021 and struggling in the short-term peak area of 1,300 points. In addition, market liquidity has improved significantly and also set many new records in terms of value and trading volume. In particular, in 2021, the average trading volume per session reached over VND 21,593 billion, with some trading sessions reaching over VND 45,000 billion.
After the Covid-19 period, the average transaction value fluctuated around VND20,000-21,000 billion. Along with the strong growth of the VN-Index, the stock market capitalization value continuously increased sharply starting from 2019. As of 2021, the listed capitalization value reached VND5.6 million billion (equivalent to 92.7% of GDP), but by the end of 2023 it reached USD240 billion (equivalent to 56.4% of GDP).
Discussing opportunities, Mr. Ho Sy Hoa said that 2024 is a pivotal year for upgrading the market in 2025, marking the tireless efforts of the Ministry of Finance and the State Securities Commission in upgrading the Vietnamese stock market from a frontier market to an emerging market.
Currently, Vietnam has met 7/9 criteria, the remaining 2 criteria are non-prefunding and failed trade management (based on CCP - central clearing function for the stock market) are 2 factors that will be included in the assessment period within the next 6-9 months of FTSE Russel. Regarding the implementation of CCP, the National Assembly has passed the amended Securities Law, which allows the Vietnam Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation (VSDC) to establish a subsidiary with the function of central clearing counterparty (CCP) for the underlying stock market.
“If the stock market is positively evaluated by FTSE based on the experience of international investors, the possibility of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market is quite high. In addition, if upgraded, the Vietnamese market can receive 1 billion USD from passive investment funds and 5 billion USD from active investment funds,” DNSE experts discussed.
However, looking at reality, Mr. Hoa is also cautious that 2025 will be a challenging year for the global economy and stock market. The world economy is entering a new cycle, with a trend of loosening monetary policy (lowering interest rates), when new President Donald Trump officially takes office. This will have a profound impact on global financial markets, including the Vietnamese stock market.
Foreign funds continue to hold long-term, placing their trust in Vietnamese stocks
Mr. Petri Deryng, head of Finnish investment fund PYN Elite Fund, reaffirmed his belief in the optimistic outlook of the Vietnamese stock market not only in 2025, but also in the coming years with the "Strong Hold" perspective.
The VN-Index in 2024 will only trade in the 1,200 - 1,300 point range, but PYN Elite Fund still maintains its long-term target of the VN-Index at 2,500 points. This target is based on strong profit growth of listed companies in the next 2-3 years, but instead of focusing on profit growth, investors pay more attention to adjustment risks. Market sentiment is affected by the USD, the possibility of imposing tariffs by the new US President and the increasing net withdrawal of foreign investors from the Vietnamese market.
Currently, the total market capitalization of Vietnam's stock exchanges (HoSE, HNX and UPCoM) accounts for about 57% of projected GDP by 2025. According to PYN Elite, this is a reasonable level and the stock market of a rapidly growing economy like Vietnam can easily reach a valuation of nearly 100% of GDP. 
Commenting on the factors affecting the market next year, Mr. Petri Deryng said that the first notable factor is that the profit growth of listed companies continues to be maintained in a positive direction. “We believe that the factors that have recently worried investors will no longer be a big problem. The market's attention will be on the strong profit growth of listed companies and the extremely attractive valuation of the market,” said the head of PYN Elite.
One of the main growth drivers of Vietnam’s economy is international investment and trade. Vietnam’s exports to the US increased by 132% during Donald Trump’s first term. Therefore, there will not be much change in Vietnam’s position in exporting goods to the global market in general and the US market in particular during Donald Trump’s upcoming second term.
More cautious about the market outlook, Mr. Michael Kokalari, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital, said that 2025 could be a volatile year for the Vietnamese stock market, as GDP growth could slow down in the first half of the year and the VND could be affected. However, this analyst also said that both possibilities could reverse by the end of the year and that would be a strong acceleration.
Mr. Michael Kokalari expressed his expectation that foreign money will return to the Vietnamese stock market in 2025, when it is clear that President Donald Trump will not target Vietnam, largely thanks to the profit growth rate of listed companies from 13% in 2024 to 17% in 2025.
Furthermore, the market valuation remains attractive with a forward P/E ratio of 12x, 1 standard deviation lower than the 10-year average of the VN-Index and 20% lower than the valuation of regional peers such as Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.
The expert from VinaCapital also said that the growth that this fund expects in 2025 is partly based on the recovery of the residential real estate market, from 9% core profit growth in 2024 to 20% in 2025. This will support the profit growth of banks when home loans increase with real estate development activities. The large proportion of the banking sector in the VN-Index will significantly boost the total growth of the Index even if the banking sector's profits increase modestly.
In the market, investor sentiment is improving thanks to growing expectations that the Vietnamese market will be upgraded to emerging market status as it has met almost all of FTSE's criteria for consideration.
2025 promises to be an important time for the Vietnamese stock market. In a volatile global context, careful preparation from regulatory agencies, strong participation from foreign investors and the potential for market upgrades offer great opportunities for sustainable development. However, to make the most of these advantages, the market needs to maintain stability, transparency and efficiency in operations, while always being ready to respond to potential risks, thereby creating good opportunities for the stock market to make a stronger breakthrough.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/chung-khoan-buoc-vao-nam-ban-le-cua-ky-nguyen-moi-d237527.html
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