Experts say that in the new global trade context, Vietnam's pangasius exports to the US market will grow in output by 2025.
Many positive signals
On February 18, 2024, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers said that the Vietnamese pangasius industry expects to increase output, export volume and value by 2025, thanks to attractive prices and the new world trade landscape.
The United States and China are currently the top two markets importing the most Vietnamese pangasius. According to statistics, in December 2024 alone, pangasius exports to the United States reached nearly 28 million USD, an increase of 40% compared to December 2023. Accumulated for the whole year of 2024, pangasius exports to the United States brought in 345 million USD, an increase of 27% compared to 2023.
Experts say that in 2025, it is likely that the US's imports of Vietnamese pangasius will skyrocket as the two sides have signed a bilateral agreement to remove anti-dumping taxes on fillets exported from Vietnam.
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| Vietnam's pangasius exports are forecast to grow by 5-10% in 2025. |
Along with that, the US enforcement of the WTO ruling opens up great opportunities for more stable export of Vietnamese pangasius to this market. This also contributes significantly to demonstrating the goodwill to strengthen the multifaceted relationship between Vietnam and the US, especially in the context of the two countries upgrading their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers recommends that to increase production by 2025, Vietnam needs to focus on many aspects, including breeding programs to select and improve the quality of pangasius broodstock focusing on traits such as salinity tolerance and disease resistance, to provide healthy fry that can adapt to changing climate conditions and improve their resistance to disease.
Expected growth of 5-10%
In the new global trade context, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers also stated that Indonesia, India and China are currently increasing their production and processing capacity of pangasius.
While their product quality may not yet match Vietnam’s consistency, they are penetrating specific market segments through competitive pricing strategies, putting increasing pressure on Vietnam’s market share, especially in key export destinations such as the US, EU, Japan and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Currently, Vietnamese pangasius accounts for 42% of global pangasius production, while India, China and Bangladesh contribute from 15% to 21%.
China is the largest market for Vietnamese pangasius, however, since 2023, Hainan Xiangtai Fishery, one of China’s largest tilapia exporters, has announced its active participation in the pangasius supply chain to meet growing domestic demand. India’s production is increasing, but the fish are generally small in size, mainly serving the domestic market. In contrast, Indonesia, despite its lower production, has successfully exported to the Middle East under its own brand and is building its reputation.
China could well import more pangasius and tilapia into its domestic market by 2025 if the US’s 10% additional tariff on all Chinese goods remains in place. In 2018, these products were subject to a 25% tariff, making tilapia imports about 20% more expensive than pangasius by 2023.
Pangasius exports could benefit from higher US tariffs on Chinese tilapia, experts say, and exporters appear to see it that way, with many companies already processing or considering tilapia.
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers forecasts that while competing products from Russia and China face unfavorable factors, pangasius exports could increase by 5-10% by 2025.
"The above growth can come from reasons such as: Better consumer confidence. Along with that are factors from new developments in world trade, the Vietnam - UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement signed in 2024 will create opportunities for Vietnamese seafood to increase exports to the UAE market. The US anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese pangasius is lower than that of other countries. The price of aquatic feed is on a downward trend," said the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers.
| In 2024, pangasius exports will reach 2 billion USD, an increase of 9% compared to 2023. Thus, after 2 years of many fluctuations in both export markets and domestic production, the Vietnamese pangasius industry has overcome challenges, adapted flexibly and with strong determination, seizing the opportunity to break through exports to markets. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-ca-tra-ky-vong-tang-truong-5-10-374444.html
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