A Ukrainian sniper practices shooting at a shooting range near the front line in Donetsk (Photo: Reuters).
In early January, at a US military base in Germany, Ukrainian military planners held a week of talks with their American and European counterparts focused on how to defend against Russian forces as the conflict neared its third year.
According to CBC News , in 2024, Ukraine could largely remain on the defensive in its conflict with Russia.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year yielded little progress on the battlefield. Defense experts say that as Ukraine struggles with shortages of ammunition and soldiers, it needs to rebuild and rebuild its forces. But that will require the United States, Ukraine’s largest military donor, and other countries to do more to support Kiev.
“Ukraine has to take defensive action with limited resources. I think most people think Ukraine can hold out in 2024. But by 2025, that will be a big question mark,” said Tim Willasey-Wilsey, professor of war studies at King’s College London.
In recent months, Ukraine has tried to push back Russia on its southern and eastern fronts, building up fortifications along its vast front line to keep the Russian military at bay, as Moscow has ramped up its arms procurement by boosting domestic production and relying on foreign partners. The West has accused Iran and North Korea of continuing to supply weapons to Russia for use in its military campaign in Ukraine.
Five months after Ukraine launched its counteroffensive, its top general admitted to The Economist that the fighting was at a stalemate. However, he retracted that statement in a reply to a Ukrainian publication a month later.
Ukraine and Russia are both preparing for the next phase of their protracted war.
While the battle lines may change little in 2024, the international political landscape could change dramatically if former President Donald Trump or another Republican is elected US president in November.
A $60 billion aid package for Ukraine is stalled in the US Congress, with Republicans refusing to pass it unless Democrats agree to tighten border security and crack down on illegal border crossings.
Ukraine calls for aid
Russia's multi-layered defense line in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters).
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met the Lithuanian leader in Vilnius recently, he declared that 2024 would be decisive for Ukraine and its partners, while admitting that one of the biggest problems Kiev is facing is the lack of modern air defense systems.
Last January, Canada promised to provide Ukraine with a $400 million surface-to-air missile system, which has yet to be delivered. The system, known by its acronym NASAMS, is being jointly produced by US and Norwegian companies and it is unclear when it will be deployed to Ukraine.
In December, a senior Ukrainian military general told Reuters that a shortage of ammunition, especially artillery shells, had forced the Ukrainian military to scale back its military operations.
"They can't fire as many shells… It's gone from about 7,000 a day to about 1,000-2,000 across the entire front," Patrick Bury, a former British Army captain and NATO analyst, said in an interview with CBC .
Mr Bury said Russia now had an advantage over Ukraine in the number of artillery shells it could fire across the front line.
"This is mainly due to European and US production, which, although increasing significantly, has not yet reached the required level," said expert Bury.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has criticized European Union members for not doing enough to provide adequate weapons to Ukraine.
According to a report released by the Estonian Ministry of Defense late last year, the EU has already supplied 300,000 of the agreed one million artillery shells and will have to significantly increase production rates to meet Ukraine's minimum needs over the next two years.
The report predicts that Ukraine could win a war with Russia by 2026 at the latest.
Konrad Muzkya, a defense analyst and director of Rochon Consulting, said Russia has been able to ramp up production of military vehicles and artillery by putting the economy on a wartime footing, with some factories running 24/7.
There is no exact data on Russia's production levels, but independent Ukrainian analysts believe that Russia can produce, modernize and repair 1,000 tanks per year, Muzyka said.
“We believe that the current production rate (in Russia) will remain sustainable for the next few years,” he said.
Through mobilization and recruitment, Russia has been able to strengthen its military. However, Russian economists have warned of a worsening labor shortage as millions of people fled Russia in the early days of the conflict.
Meanwhile, millions have also fled Ukraine, according to the UN refugee agency. Only about 30 million people are estimated to live in areas now controlled by Ukraine.
Ukraine's parliament is considering a bill to lower the military age from 27 to 25, while the army has asked for an additional 500,000 troops.
However, deploying troops on the battlefield is just the first step, as experts say Ukraine's training program needs to be improved to better prepare soldiers and commanding officers on the front lines.
“You could imagine putting a bunch of volunteers in the field, but only giving them five weeks of training to attack Russian lines,” said Bury.
He said Ukraine had had a lot of success using missiles and drones to target Russian military infrastructure, including the Black Sea Fleet, and believed this would be a key part of Kiev's strategy in the coming months.
Ukraine continues to press its partners to supply weapons for its military needs. "Ukraine is under pressure because it wants to show its Western partners that it can win on the battlefield," said Bury.
Mr Bury believes that the decisions Ukraine makes this year should be more strategic.
“In 2024 (Ukraine) needs to focus on providing resources and getting solid foundations to win a major and protracted war,” the expert added.
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