Continued decline with no signs of recovery?

Coffee prices are forecast to continue to decline slightly on June 18, 2024. According to experts, the strengthening of the US dollar last weekend contributed to the decline in coffee prices, along with a wave of liquidation of buying positions due to concerns about the pressure to close positions in July.

A favorable and fast-moving harvest in Brazil, along with rising inventories on the market, contributed to a drop in coffee prices last week.

Experts say the New York Stock Exchange has stalled after five consecutive weeks of gains in the market. Technically, the market is expected to have a new week of declining trading before more information about the harvest in Brazil.

The current favorable crop season in Brazil, increased inventories on the market, and the current speculative overbought situation on the market are factors that are holding back the growth of coffee.

On the contrary, increasing demand for coffee and freight rates, along with concerns about a decline in the upcoming coffee harvest in Vietnam, are also contributing factors to the increase in coffee prices.

For the Robusta market, experts warn that "there is no promise of a bright new week, especially when the July liquidation deadline is approaching, while the buying position of the main market players is quite large". The London floor is in an overbought state. A strong sell-off on the floor by speculators also caused Robusta coffee to fall sharply.

According to experts, this decline in domestic coffee is a predictable result after the sharp increase in the previous period. Although the market has shown unfavorable technical indicators, coffee prices have still increased sharply in recent times. Therefore, at a certain threshold, it is understandable that coffee prices will turn around and fall to neutralize the market.

Coffee market expert Nguyen Quang Binh also warned to "be careful" with coffee prices this week, showing many negative premonitions for the market's growth.

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on June 17, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices today turned down slightly to between 119,000-120,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 120,100 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 120,200 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 120,000 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 119,900 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 120,000 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 120,200 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 119,000 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today (June 17) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 120,000 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 119,900 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures for July 2024 delivery on the London floor was at $4,127/ton, up $12 compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for September 2024 was $4,029/ton, up $20; the delivery term for November 2024 was $3,892/ton, up $25; and the delivery term for January 2025 was $3,743/ton, up $30.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on June 17, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 222.95 - 225.60 cents/lb.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 225.60 cents/lb; up 1.45 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The September 2024 delivery period is 225.75 cents/lb, up 1.35 cents/lb; the December 2024 delivery period is 224.30 cents/lb, up 1.10 cents/lb and the March 2025 delivery period is 222.95 cents/lb, up 1 cent/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee decreased slightly on the morning of June 17, 2024. Specifically, the delivery period for July 2024 is 281.05 USD/ton (down 2.50%); the delivery period for September 2024 is 275.95 USD/ton (up 1.90%); the delivery period for December 2024 is 270.80 USD/ton (down 2.35%) and the delivery period for March 2025 is 269.50 USD/ton (down 2.10%).

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

Figures released by the General Department of Customs show that Vietnam's coffee exports in May reached only 79,358 tons, down sharply by 47.8% compared to the previous month and 47% compared to the same period last year. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline compared to the same period last year and the sixth month since the beginning of the crop year. This is a sign that domestic coffee inventories are running low.

In the first 5 months of the year, coffee exports reached 817,154 tons with a turnover of more than 2.8 billion USD, down 5.8% in volume but up 40.9% in value compared to the same period in 2023 thanks to high prices.

Vietnam's leading coffee export markets in the first 5 months of 2024 included the EU with 328,130 tons, down 3% year-on-year and accounting for 40.2% of the market share; Japan with 56,931 tons, up 16.9%; the US with 50,033 tons, down 22.4%... Meanwhile, exports to Asian markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, China, Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia increased sharply.

Thus, at the end of the first 8 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 to May 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.2 million tons of coffee, equivalent to 80% of the current crop year's output and down 7% compared to the same period last crop year.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-1862024-tiep-da-giam-chua-thay-dau-hieu-hoi-phuc-326681.html