Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement: Who Monitors It and How?

How is the ceasefire monitored?

Negotiations have been underway between Russia, Ukraine and the United States, gradually moving towards a complete ceasefire along the entire line of contact. As a result of recent talks in Saudi Arabia, the parties have reached an agreement to stop attacks on each other's energy infrastructure and, most recently, a ceasefire in the Black Sea, allowing Russian and Ukrainian goods to return to normal trade in this sea.

However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is taking place on many other fronts and fronts. In fact, the length of the contact line between the armed forces of Russia and Ukraine is about 2 thousand kilometers. If an observation post were to be placed for each kilometer of this distance, it would be necessary to build, prepare, equip and place 2 thousand objects on the ground. An important point is the need to ensure the absolute safety of the observers.

In addition, the key factor is that the observers must be agreed upon by both sides of the conflict and, of course, always maintain a consistent stance and neutrality, not siding with any party involved in the conflict. All of these points have certainly been and are on the agenda of the US-Russia negotiations.

The US and Russia are actively negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine. Illustration photo: GI

If the agreement includes a cessation of attacks on infrastructure and firepower on the line of contact, the parties must ensure control over the cessation of military operations on land, in the air and at sea. Moreover, it is also necessary to strictly control each side's weapons systems, starting from small arms to drones and missiles. At the same time, according to the logic of the ceasefire, the artillery and missile systems of the ground forces must be withdrawn behind the line of contact.

As for limiting attacks on infrastructure, both sides could agree on a list of multiple locations and coordinates. Getting both sides to agree on such a document would be a very difficult task for negotiators. But with the current progress, a list of targets that the sides cannot “touch” could be agreed upon.

Who can monitor the ceasefire?

The next question is who will monitor the ceasefire? The simplest way would be to separate the armed forces of the parties and send observers to monitor the contact line. Which country or organization this force will belong to remains a difficult question to answer.

It has been suggested that the UN “blue helmets” or observers from India and China would be suitable for this role. Russia is unlikely to be satisfied with a peacekeeping force from NATO countries. In addition, the United States is currently the main driving force on the path to peace in the current Ukrainian conflict and is also the country with the ability to monitor the ceasefire from a distance. With its influence over the Kiev government, the United States could ensure that Ukraine strictly implements the ceasefire. Monitoring of the ceasefire could be carried out by US air and space control systems.

Monitoring cruise missile launches and the operation of multiple missile defense systems is more complex, but can also be done with reconnaissance drones. Drones and electronic reconnaissance equipment can also monitor the activities of ground forces in the combat contact zone, as well as the activities of FPV drones and the appearance of unidentified objects in the airspace. In this case, the requirement is that the parties identify a demilitarized zone of territory that the US can fully monitor.

In general, if the Trump administration is truly determined to push for a ceasefire, Washington has all the necessary conditions and technical means to ensure the implementation of the ceasefire.

There are still many obstacles to peace in Ukraine. Illustration photo: GI

The next issue is about observers. The difficulty here is that the flow of surveillance information is transmitted to one or more parties to the conflict. Ukraine and the Western countries are certainly suspicious of Russia, because Moscow has recently accused Ukraine of repeatedly using intelligence data from both the US and NATO.

Accordingly, either the US must stop exchanging surveillance data with NATO information systems, or NATO must stop exchanging data with Kiev, at least during the ceasefire period. Given the peace momentum that President Donald Trump wants to achieve, this is a completely solvable task.

There are also alternatives - using international means instead of the US surveillance system. This is quite feasible, although it involves certain costs and the organization of interaction between several national intelligence systems.

Amid escalating tensions between Russia and European countries, neutral observers can be found in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

China could take on that role, but the United States is unlikely to agree to China’s exclusive involvement in monitoring the ceasefire. The only alternative for the United States, therefore, may be some kind of international monitoring force. The answer will likely become clearer in the coming days. In principle, the issue can be resolved if all the signatories show good faith.

The most important thing now is that the parties can build conditions of equality and fairness, eliminate the one-sided game, and bring benefits to all parties. Only then, after a short 30-day ceasefire, will the international community be able to find a lasting, sustainable peace that all parties can accept.

Hung Anh

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/thoa-thuan-ngu-ban-nga--ukraine-ai-giam-sat-va-giam-sat-nhu-the-nao-post340057.html