At the end of August 28, the USD price at many commercial banks was fixed at 24,680 VND/USD for buying and 25,020 VND/USD for selling. During the day, the USD price fell below 25,000 VND, down to only 24,990 VND/USD. If calculated from the beginning of August until now, the USD price at banks has decreased by about 400 VND (1.6%).
Ms. Nguyen Thi Thao Nhu, Senior Director of Individual Clients, Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC), analyzed that the main cause of the weakening of the USD in the global currency market is believed to be the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates in September. Low interest rates reduce the attractiveness of the USD to investors, causing this currency to depreciate compared to other currencies.
In the domestic market, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has applied many measures to stabilize the exchange rate, including increasing VND liquidity through regulating the interbank market and selling USD to the market. The injection of money through open market operations (OMO) with interest rates gradually decreasing from 4.5% to 4.25% has helped to significantly cool down the USD/VND exchange rate.
The cooling exchange rate brings many positive impacts to the economy. Photo: LAM GIANG
Mr. Nguyen Thanh Lam, Director of Retail Client Analysis, Maybank Securities Company, also believes that the FED will almost certainly cut interest rates in September, helping to reduce the USD-VND interest rate gap - one of the main reasons for the VND's depreciation against the USD. "When the above root cause is resolved, the VND will also appreciate again against the USD. For the economy in general, the price of imported goods will cool down, reducing inflationary pressure. The pressure on the exchange rate will also help the State Bank have more space to operate monetary policy," said Mr. Lam.
Regarding related industries when the exchange rate cools down, according to Maybank experts, groups with high input material imports such as steel, petroleum, beverages or groups with high foreign currency debt ratios such as aviation, electricity, steel, automobiles, etc. will also benefit directly.
Experts from Rong Viet Securities said that the cooling exchange rate has many positive impacts on the economy, especially reducing inflationary pressure, increasing domestic purchasing power and strengthening consumer confidence, thereby contributing to promoting economic growth.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Thao Nhu, when the USD decreases, industries that are heavily dependent on imported raw materials, machinery, and goods such as processing industry, technology production, and consumption will directly benefit from reduced import costs.
The retail sector also benefits from lower import costs for imported goods, creating conditions for increased competitiveness and improved profit margins, especially for technology, electronics, and high-end consumer goods products.
"Enterprises in the construction and real estate industries indirectly benefit from reduced costs of imported construction materials, helping to implement projects at lower costs. However, the falling exchange rate poses challenges for export enterprises such as textiles, seafood and transportation, affecting their competitiveness in the international market," Ms. Thao Nhu analyzed.
Positive impact
Mr. Tran Vu Khanh, Director of Hiep Quang Agro Company, which specializes in importing agricultural products such as corn, soybeans, wheat, etc., said that the sharp decrease in exchange rate will actively support the cost of many products using imported raw materials. Mr. Khanh also assessed that the management of USD/VND exchange rate by the State Bank is very good, with small fluctuation range, making it easier for businesses to plan their business. "In many countries, the domestic currency has depreciated by double digits compared to the USD, making it very difficult to consume imported goods," said Mr. Khanh.
Previously, some airlines said that one of the difficulties for their business operations was the increase in input costs due to exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, the sharp decrease in exchange rates will have a very positive impact on the operations of the airlines.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/tho-phao-voi-ti-gia-196240828203513775.htm
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