(Dan Tri) - According to experts, currently only the real estate market in big cities is bustling, with prices increasing dramatically, while other areas are still quite quiet.
Contrast between Hanoi real estate market and other provinces
According to data from research units, since the beginning of the year, the prices of old and new apartments in Hanoi have increased dramatically. Accordingly, the average price of new apartments in this market currently ranges from 65 million VND/m2 to 70 million VND/m2.
Not only apartments, but also segments such as houses in alleys, townhouses, and villas in Hanoi have increased recently. According to data from a real estate research unit, from the first quarter of 2023 (when the market was quiet) to now, price fluctuations in some areas on the outskirts of Hanoi have increased significantly. Specifically, in Hoai Duc district, land prices have increased by 81%, in Dong Anh district by 53%, and in Thanh Oai district by 90% compared to the beginning of last year.
On the contrary, the provincial real estate markets have only shown a slight recovery trend, not as vibrant as Hanoi. Mr. Pham Duc Toan - real estate expert - said that currently, only the market in Hanoi is vibrant, with prices of most segments increasing dramatically. Meanwhile, the provincial real estate markets are still quite quiet.
According to him, in provinces and cities where land prices increased sharply in 2021-2022, they have all remained quiet, especially in Bac Ninh and Bac Giang. The same situation is happening in Quang Ninh and Hai Phong, but thanks to the good economic development momentum of these two localities, the market has had transactions again.
A plot of land in the suburbs of Hanoi (Photo: Duong Tam).
Another area with difficult transactions is Hoa Binh province, an area known to be bustling with resort real estate, but now also has low liquidity.
In Thanh Hoa, Mr. Toan said that this is also the locality that recorded the strongest land fever in 2021, when everyone went to buy land. However, the transaction volume here is also low, most investors who want to resell still have to reduce the price by about 20% compared to the peak.
Expert: Investors tend to shift cash flow to the provincial real estate market
Talking to Dan Tri reporter, Mr. Le Dinh Chung - Member of the Market Working Group of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association - said that the current real estate "wave" is only happening locally in Hanoi and has not spread to other provinces and localities.
According to him, it will not be until the second quarter of 2025 that the land market can witness more even development in many places. However, investing in land at the present time requires a medium-term vision, with a capital recovery period of at least 1 to 3 years, instead of expecting a quick "surf".
Subdivided land in Hanoi (Photo: Duong Tam).
Mr. Chung also emphasized that the land prices in the suburbs of Hanoi are currently high, with many potential risks. Therefore, if investors want to invest in this segment, they should choose areas with synchronous infrastructure, good economic development but land prices have not increased too much in recent times.
"Some investors have started their journey to buy land in some areas where prices have not increased significantly in recent times. These people are tending to be proactive, because according to the current Real Estate Business Law 2023, it is not allowed to divide and sell land in 105 cities and towns across the country," he said.
At the same time, this expert recommends that investors should not "put all their eggs in one basket", that is, buy in large quantities at this time. Instead, they should choose projects with clear legal status, attractive products or areas with full amenities.
Explaining the contrasting developments in the real estate market in Hanoi and other provinces, expert Nguyen Anh Que said that the investment demand of people in Hanoi is very large. Previously, they often went to other provinces to buy and sell real estate, making the regional market more vibrant.
However, after 2 years of sluggish real estate market, investors in Hanoi have changed their behavior. Instead of "fishing offshore" as before, they withdrew their cash flow from the provinces and switched to investing in cash flow real estate segments in the center of Hanoi such as apartments, houses in alleys, townhouses, villas and suburban land. Therefore, the real estate market in Hanoi has heated up in recent times.
According to him, prices of all real estate segments in Hanoi peaked in April. For apartments, there have been projects that have continued to increase in price recently, but only locally, not representing the entire market. Regarding suburban land, some people who invested early in the 2022-2023 period have started to take profits.
Making a forecast, Mr. Que said that in the coming time, some people will tend to shift cash flow to the provinces, where real estate prices have not increased much in the recent period.
However, it will not be until 2026-2027 that the provincial land market can become vibrant again. In particular, provinces with advantages in industrial and tourism development will receive the cash flow first, then it will spread more widely to many provinces and cities.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/bat-dong-san/thi-truong-bat-dong-san-co-dang-thuc-su-nong-20241025165938828.htm
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