Football prediction Italy vs Belgium: Unbeaten at home

Italy vs Belgium is the highlight match of the 2024-25 Nations League round 3. Italy shows signs of revival after an unsuccessful EURO in Germany. Belgium is rated lower, but they still have quality players in the squad.

Statistics, comments Italy vs Belgium

Italy have been in good form since EURO 2024. They beat France 3-1 in their opening match, before defeating Israel 2-1 in the second round of the Nations League. Having successfully overcome the most difficult "gate", the reception of Belgium at home at the Olimpico Stadium is expected to be easier for Italy.

The Azzurri have won five of their last six Nations League games, a record of 84%. Their last defeat in the competition was against Spain in the 2023 semi-finals. Italy then beat the Netherlands to finish third.

Italy have also been good against Belgium, winning five of their last six meetings with the Western European side. The problem for Luciano Spalletti and his team is their defence - a strength that has made Italy famous. Since their friendly win over Bosnia in June, Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games.

Belgium are slightly better defensively than Italy, with two clean sheets in the same period. They have lost three of their last six games, a 50% win rate. Coach Domenico Tedesco has a deep squad, but lacks cohesion.

With both Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku missing, Belgium have even more reason to worry. They have not beaten a team in the top 10 of the FIFA rankings since June 2021. Belgium's best result in the Nations League was reaching the semi-finals of the 2021 tournament.

Italy are the favorites ahead of the match on the morning of October 11 (Vietnam time). They have not lost at home since March 2023.

Italy vs Belgium squad

Davide Frattesi is almost certain to start. The Inter midfielder scored in both the wins over France and Israel in September. In total, Fratessi has scored six goals for his country, and Italy have won all of those games.

Playing alongside Frattesi is likely to be Pellegrini and Tonali - a player who has just returned from a 1-year ban.

Leandro Trossard did not play well for Belgium at EURO 2024, but Mr. Tedesco still has reasons to let Trossard start, especially in the context of Lukaku not being called up.

In the 7 matches Trossard scored, Belgium won 6 matches by 2 goals or more, while keeping a clean sheet. Playing alongside Trossard in attack were Lukebako, Doku and striker Openda.