NATO faces the prospect of 'disintegration'

Not only is Europe planning to replace the US role as the possibility of the country leaving NATO increases, it may also be about to enter a nuclear arms race.

The Financial Times on March 20 quoted four European officials as saying that Europe's largest military powers are planning to take on greater responsibility for the continent's defense.

Outside NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium

The prospect of separation

Accordingly, the UK, France, Germany and some northern European countries have just had an informal discussion about reshaping the security bloc of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The discussion is an effort to avoid chaos that could occur if the US unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the transatlantic security alliance that has protected Europe for the past 80 years.

Regarding this issue, a few days ago, NBC quoted two Pentagon officials saying that the agency is carrying out a significant restructuring of the US military commands. In particular, the Pentagon is considering the US giving up the role of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (SACEUR). For more than 70 years, the US has always assigned a general to the position of SACEUR. And SACEUR is currently also the head of the US European Command, and is also the main commander overseeing support for Ukraine in the current conflict.

Recently, in the first days of his second term, US President Donald Trump continuously asked European allies to take more responsibility for the security of the old continent.

Tensions have been rising since the US pressured Ukraine to negotiate a peace settlement in its conflict with Russia. In the process, Washington has suspended aid to Kyiv, leaving Ukraine to rely on Europe.

Not only that, President Trump also showed his willingness to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin's conditions for achieving peace in Ukraine: a "long-term" solution and the "root causes" that led Moscow to launch a military campaign against Kyiv from February 2022.

In an analysis sent to Thanh Nien , Eurasia Group (USA), the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm, stated that the above-mentioned issue is understood to be what Russia had put forward in its December 2021 ultimatum to NATO and the US. Notably, NATO did not admit Ukraine, NATO had to withdraw troops and weapons from member countries admitted after May 27, 1997. At the same time, NATO did not conduct any military activities on the territory of Ukraine, Eastern European countries, the South Caucasus and in Central Asia. For the US, there were also conditions such as withdrawing medium-range missiles and above from Europe.

From the above developments, the possibility of the US withdrawing from NATO is entirely possible.

When NATO does not have the US and the risk of a nuclear race

Dr. Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group (USA), commented: "This is a do or fail moment. Europeans feel like there is a gun pointed at them from the East (by the Russians) as a direct national security threat, and now a gun to the head from the West. And that means Europeans now have to act together immediately."

In fact, the EU group has already taken action. According to the Financial Times , discussions on replacing the US role in NATO show that the EU needs to increase its defense spending and capabilities continuously for 5-10 years. In particular, according to Bloomberg, the 5 main elements targeted in the coming period are air defense systems, deep fire capabilities, logistics systems, communications and land mobility.

The European Commission has recently detailed its budget proposals to support the strengthening of defense capabilities. Specifically, a financial package of up to 800 billion euros (about 870 billion USD) could be mobilized over 4 years. Of course, Europe's efforts have also encountered certain obstacles. Most recently, on March 21, Italy voiced its opposition to the above 870 billion USD financial package plan.

Not only that, the US may withdraw its protection, which means withdrawing its nuclear umbrella, so European countries are even looking for nuclear capabilities to protect themselves. Typically, in a recent speech to the parliament, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called for considering access to "opportunities related to nuclear weapons". "This is a serious race: a race for security, not for war", Mr. Tusk emphasized. Mr. Friedrich Merz, who is expected to become German Chancellor, recently expressed a similar view when answering the country's television station. He said that Germany should discuss a nuclear sharing agreement with France and the UK.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris is ready to consider expanding its nuclear deterrent to protect its European allies. However, France's limited capabilities could make other countries feel insecure and seek to develop their own nuclear weapons capabilities. This could lead to the risk of a nuclear arms race.

Currently, the US contributes 15.8% to NATO's total annual operating budget of about $3.5 billion. The US also deploys 80,000 - 100,000 troops across Europe, along with a series of modern weapons. Therefore, Washington is considered to play an indispensable role in European security.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/nato-truoc-vien-canh-tan-dan-xe-nghe-185250321231149603.htm