The domestic gold market fluctuates strongly in price but purchasing power is not too sudden.
At the end of February 3 (the 6th day of Tet), SJC gold bars were listed by businesses at VND87.5 million/tael for buying and VND89.5 million/tael for selling, up VND700,000/tael compared to the previous day. The price of gold rings and jewelry also reached VND89 million/tael, the highest in many months.
Mainly price fluctuations
Domestic gold prices hit their 2025 peak in early February when world prices surpassed their all-time high, reaching $2,820/ounce at one point before falling back to around $2,800/ounce.
On the first working day after the Lunar New Year holiday, the gold market in Ho Chi Minh City was not very active, there was no rush to buy gold like a few months ago. Commercial banks said that very few customers bought SJC gold bars. Many large stores of SJC, PNJ, DOJI... were also quite sparse, with only a few customers coming to buy jewelry, gold bars or type 1 rings related to the year of At Ty. Similarly, a series of gold shops in the Ben Thanh, Tan Dinh, Thach Da markets... had few customers coming to trade.
Mi Hong gold shops (Binh Thanh district), Kim Thanh and Kim Phat I (Go Vap district) are more bustling. At these shops, people gather to buy necklaces, 24K gold rings and jewelry to wear and store. According to records, the price of plain round gold rings at these shops is commonly around 8.8 million VND/tael; Than Tai gold bars, gold products shaped like snakes symbolizing the year of At Ty also have similar prices, plus processing costs from hundreds of thousands of VND to several million VND/product.
Kim Phat I gold shop staff said that in recent days, jewelry products have been selling quite well. Meanwhile, gold bars with the image of God of Wealth, Phuc - Loc - Tho, and the image of a snake have been selling very slowly. "Maybe because the price of gold is too high at this time and it is not yet the day of God of Wealth on the 10th day of the first lunar month (February 7), so many people who want to buy gold for luck at the beginning of the year are still waiting" - said the staff of this gold shop.
Some buyers of gold bars with the words Tai - Loc - Phat... from PNJ Company said that the gold bars were processed in 2023. According to PNJ employees, due to the scarcity of raw gold this year, the company did not produce new gold bars for God of Wealth Day but only sold gold with the words Tai - Loc remaining from last year. The gold products introduced for Tet this year are mainly jewelry gold collections.
People buy gold jewelry at gold shops in Go Vap district (HCMC) on the morning of February 3. Photo: Thy Tho
What is the cause?
Regarding the sharp increase in gold prices in recent weeks, analysts said that the world gold price has broken out strongly and exceeded 2,800 USD/ounce after US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tax on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods. This has made investors worried that the financial market (stocks, bonds, etc.) and other investment channels may be unstable. As a result, many economic organizations have increased their demand for holding gold to hedge against risks.
Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong said that the gold price has surpassed the historical peak set in October 2024 but will not increase continuously to 2,900 USD/ounce as expected but will fluctuate up and down at certain times. Therefore, gold buyers after Tet and the upcoming God of Wealth Festival need to pay attention because the gold price has increased continuously for many weeks, it is very easy for a sharp correction to appear before increasing sharply again.
Economist Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said that gold prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in 2025. Both markets, gold bars and gold rings, will be affected, but gold rings will have stronger fluctuations. Gold bars are still under the control of the State Bank, so it is difficult for prices to fluctuate strongly compared to gold rings.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu cited several international forecasts that gold prices could rise to $3,000/ounce. This would have a huge impact on domestic gold prices, especially gold rings. However, fluctuations in world gold prices remain a big unknown, depending on the US economic and monetary policies.
"If Donald Trump applies economic policies that lead to inflation in the US, the US Federal Reserve (FED) may increase interest rates to control inflation. At that time, the value of the USD will increase, and the price of gold may decrease. On the contrary, geopolitical fluctuations or foreign trade policies such as the US imposing high taxes on countries with trade surpluses, including Vietnam, can also affect the price of gold," Dr. Hieu analyzed.
One of the factors affecting the domestic gold market is the limited supply of gold bars, leading to insufficient demand. Over the past year, the State Bank has succeeded in controlling the price of gold bars and quelling the gold rush of the previous year. However, the demand for gold remains high while the supply has not improved.
Need to import raw gold
Regarding the gold supply, Mr. Shaokai Fan, Director of Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and Director of Global Central Banks at the World Gold Council (WGC), cited information from the Vietnam Gold Business Association and research from Metal Focus, saying that the demand for gold jewelry in Vietnam fluctuates between 15-20 tons per year. Therefore, Vietnam has to import raw gold to produce these 20 tons of jewelry. The Vietnam Gold Business Association has sent a petition on the import of raw gold to the State Bank.
"Decree 24/2012-ND-CP stipulates conditions for the production and trading of gold jewelry. It is necessary to remove restrictions on gold jewelry and consider it as a normal commodity without any business conditions," said Mr. Shaokai Fan.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/kho-doan-gia-vang-196250203203408406.htm
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