 |
| Mr. Nitin Kapoor, Co-Chairman of VBF, spoke at the Vietnam Economic Outlook Report for the second quarter of 2023. (Source: VBF) |
On the afternoon of September 8, in Hanoi, the Vietnam Business Forum (VBF) organized the Vietnam Economic Outlook Report - VBF Economic Outlook for the second quarter of 2023 in person and online.
The event featured discussions by speakers from the World Bank (WB) in Vietnam, Mizuho Bank Hanoi, Dragon Capital Fund, CBRE real estate management company, and more than 200 delegates in person and online. Here, experts shared their assessments of Vietnam's economic developments in the first months of 2023 and growth prospects for 2023 and 2024.
Speaking at the event, Mr. Nitin Kapoor, Co-Chairman of VBF, commented that despite the challenging global geopolitical and geo-economic context, Vietnam’s resilience remains a bright spot in the region. According to him, this spirit is thanks to the support of government agencies, credit institutions, research institutions and the business community.
Meanwhile, Mr. Andrea Coppola, Chief Economist of the World Bank in Vietnam, said that the global recession is clearly taking place, therefore, Vietnam's main trading partners such as the US, the Eurozone and China are also affected.
The World Bank forecasts that the global economy will grow 2.1% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, while the US will grow 0.7% and 1.2%, the Eurozone 0.4% and 1.3%, and China 5.6% and 4.6%.
According to the World Bank, the global economic downturn has put pressure on the Vietnamese economy, with export-related activities, which contribute nearly half of Vietnam's growth, falling, putting the economy at risk. Difficulties have also affected processed and manufactured goods exported to the US, the European Union (EU) and China.
In addition, the base effect (i.e. the unexpected change in inflation data) has gradually decreased in the post-Covid-19 period and the increase in uncertainties has also affected domestic demand. Retail sales growth has recently slowed down compared to the pre-Covid-19 period (2019) while private sector investment has decreased sharply. The decline in external demand and weaker domestic demand have led to a sharp slowdown in growth in the first half of 2023.
Specifically, in terms of trade, compared to the same period in 2022, exports in the first half of 2023 decreased by 12%, imports decreased by 17.9%. In addition, consumer price inflation (CPI) decreased rapidly (2% in June 2023), while core inflation remained quite high (4.3%).
However, the first 6 months of the year also recorded bright spots such as foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement remaining stable, and public investment improving compared to the first half of 2022.
 |
| Speakers discuss at the event. (Photo: HA) |
According to the WB report, although Vietnam's economic growth has not yet improved in 2023, it will gradually recover in 2024 and 2025. Regarding external demand, although weaker in the first half of 2023 than previously expected, global growth will gradually increase from the first quarter of 2024. This will have a positive impact on Vietnam's economy.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Motokatsu Ban, Director of Mizuho Bank Hanoi, said that recently, Vietnam's economic growth has slowed down, especially in a complex macroeconomic environment.
Regarding short-term prospects, according to Mr. Ban, Vietnam's economy is highly open, so its development is closely linked to the growth of the world economy. The representative of Mizuho Hanoi said that in order to support economic activities, the Vietnamese Government has taken specific actions to support the real estate and construction industries. These are important points and will be the driving force for Vietnam's economic growth in the coming time.
In the current context, the WB offers a number of specific policy recommendations on fiscal, monetary, and credit because slowing economic growth requires effective policy action in the short term.
In addition, according to the World Bank, Vietnam needs structural reforms to ensure sustainable recovery such as: Investing in energy transmission; efforts to cope with global climate change need to take into account adaptation and risk reduction factors in investment decisions, greening production through carbon taxes and other fiscal tools.
Meanwhile, the Director of Mizuho Hanoi commented that Vietnam's economy has a solid foundation and has the prospect of accelerating in the following years. However, currently, unfavorable global developments will have a negative impact. Hopefully, from 2024 onwards, unfavorable factors will decrease and the economy will accelerate in the following years.
Source
Comment (0)