World gold prices are more unpredictable

Reuters reported yesterday (March 18) that the price of gold has surpassed the $3,000/ounce mark, reaching a new record - specifically the price of $3,017.64/ounce.

Unpredictable developments

Accordingly, the price of gold has increased by 15% compared to the level of 2,623 USD/ounce at the end of December 2024. That is not to mention the increase of 27% in 2024 alone. The above developments have caused the global financial community to quickly change its forecast for gold prices in the coming time.

Many factors are causing gold prices to rise

Specifically, ANZ Bank forecasts that in the next 3 months, the gold price will increase to 3,100 USD/ounce and in the next 6 months it will be 3,200 USD/ounce. Regarding the gold price, ANZ representative announced: "We maintain a bullish view, in the context of strong winds from escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, loose monetary policy and strong purchases by central banks".

Similarly, UBS Bank also raised its forecast for gold prices from now until June to reach $3,200/ounce, while the previous forecast for the same period was only $3,000/ounce. "With gold prices now reaching our previous target of $3,000/ounce, the key question is whether the rally will continue. We think it will continue as policy risks and trade conflicts continue to increase, making gold a safe haven for investors," according to a representative of the UBS strategist team.

In fact, gold prices rose after US President Donald Trump ordered the US military to attack Houthi bases in Yemen. At the same time, the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip seemed to collapse, Israel attacked the land again, and the peace signal for Ukraine has not improved.

Many reasons "push" gold prices

One of the important reasons why gold has become a "safe haven" at the present time is the rather pessimistic US economic situation.

Recently, the US stock market has fallen dramatically. CNBC cited statistics showing that the US stock market has lost more than 5,000 billion USD in market value in just the past 3 weeks. Specifically, the market value of the S&P 500 at its peak on February 19 was 52,060 billion USD, but by March 13, the continuous decline left the market at only 46,780 billion USD. As of yesterday, according to US media, the US stock market has not shown any signs of improvement, and has even continued to decline, due to investors' concerns about the risk of economic recession.

On the same day, March 18, The Hill newspaper cited a number of analytical sources predicting that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to postpone changing its operating interest rate at its meeting this week due to concerns about the country's economic situation.

Not only that, investors are also worried about the disruption of the global supply chain caused by the trade policies of the Trump administration.

Analysts have assessed that the import tax policies that Mr. Trump is imposing on goods from a number of economies could cause US inflation to increase because the US is still unable to self-supply many consumer goods. This is one of the reasons why analysts from financial groups Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have predicted that US inflation will increase and economic growth will decrease. Not stopping there, the GDPNow analysis model of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (USA) also predicted that the US economy will not only not grow, but may also decrease in the first quarter of 2025.

According to a recent report sent to Thanh Nien by Moody's Analytics (a member of Moody's Financial Services Group), the tariff policy, trade war and government spending cuts have led to signs of inflation rising again in the US, causing the Fed to delay cutting the operating interest rate. When the Fed is more cautious, it will lead to global monetary easing taking place more slowly than expected. This will affect the global economy. Thus, gold will further increase its role as a "safe haven".

In terms of supply and demand, many investment funds have also increased their gold purchases. Bloomberg cited customs data showing that the value of gold and other precious metals imported into the US reached $30.8 billion in January 2025, while this figure was only $10.7 billion in the last month of 2024. In a further comparison, the average import of this category in 2022 and 2023 only reached an average of about $1.7 billion/month.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/gia-vang-the-gioi-them-kho-luong-185250318231319443.htm