More time is needed to determine the bottom of the stock market.

The stock market continued to plummet and broke through the 1,200 point mark on the derivatives expiry date yesterday, April 17. Many investors are concerned that the VN-Index may continue to decline sharply in April. What is not expected is that the market will have a 30-40% decline (entering a downtrend), which will cause stocks to fall sharply, with some stocks falling by 70-80% like in 2022. Or the market at the end of September last year corrected down 18% from the peak, even though it was in an uptrend, there were still stocks that fell by 40%.

Mr. Pham Thanh Doanh - Admin of Chung Khoan Pro expressed his opinion that in the market adjustments this year, there will be strong differentiation. In previous years, when the market adjusted, almost 80% of stocks would adjust accordingly. However, this year is different, the differentiation was quite clear last week.

In the short term, in my personal opinion, the 1221 zone will be a fairly reasonable valuation zone in this period. In the worst case scenario, the VN-Index may correct to the 1180 zone, filling the increase gap on February 19, 2024. This is the valuation zone for February 2024.

For investors who are quite technical in this period, they can still trade calmly, but limit themselves to the recommendations of the rooms/groups, because it is currently quite difficult to analyze. It is possible to reduce the margin or optimize profits by closing a part of the profit and observing information from the market, Mr. Pham Thanh Doanh commented.

From a more optimistic perspective, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that currently, the market is not in a period of expanding market valuations like the recent past, but the market will go hand in hand with the growth of corporate profits, a growth rate that by the end of the year will only be around 1,300 - 1,350 points. However, during the year, it is possible that the VN-Index will surpass this threshold to 1,400 or even 1,500 points, then return to the threshold of 1,300 - 1,350 points.

Experts say that the supporting factor for the market this year still comes from monetary policy.

For the stock market, monetary policy is the most important policy. Currently, Vietnam's monetary policy is loose, fiscal policy is also very supportive for the economy and for the current stock market.

Besides interest rates, the most important factor is that most businesses have passed the most difficult period. In the long term, the market is still in a low interest rate and easing cycle, but in the short term, it is still cautious to present two risks.

First, if Vietnam continues to keep interest rates low, the Fed may, for some reason (high inflation), maintain high interest rates for a while longer, then the interest rate differential will lead to tension in exchange rates and inflation. Second, when the economy shows signs of recovery, the demand for credit growth will follow, Vietnam's interest rates will bottom out and increase again.

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