Weak liquidity makes it difficult for stocks to break out

The stock market had a week of strong declines with weak liquidity. The positive point probably only came from the fact that the support level of 1,250 points was maintained and some agricultural and food stocks attracted investors.

At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 22.25 points (-1.75%), down to 1,251.71 points. The HNX-Index decreased by 2.23 points (-0.95%), down to 232.42 points.

Liquidity on both exchanges this week was higher than the trading week after the National Day holiday (due to having 5 trading sessions compared to 3 sessions last week), but the average trading value per session across the entire market decreased by 21.29%.

Although trading was also less active as market liquidity dropped sharply, foreign investors still net sold nearly VND1,200 billion. Notably, this group turned to strongly disburse FPT shares.

Recently, analysts of ABS Securities Company released a September 2024 strategy report with forecasts of two stock market scenarios in September.

Scenario 1, the market is supported by credit growth measures and positive macroeconomic factors, plus the Fed starts lowering rates on September 18 and market upgrade solutions are deployed.

It is forecasted that in September, VN-Index will continue to fluctuate sideways, gradually narrowing its range, from 1,250 -1,269 to 1,284+/- points. After that, VN-Index needs to conquer the price range of 1,305 - 1,316 points, confirming the upward trend to higher levels of 1,340 - 1,395 points in the coming months.

Scenario 2, which experts assess as having a high probability, is that the market will continue to move sideways for a longer period of time, within the range of the past 5 months from 1,165 - 1,185 points to 1,300 points due to the floods and storm Yagi that have not ended, and the damage caused by the storm to the economy has not yet been fully estimated.

Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC) has a more optimistic assessment of the stock market, saying that September will mark the Fed's reversal of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the positive macroeconomic context and the progress in resolving the bottlenecks to meet the FTSE Russell upgrade criteria will be catalysts to help the Vietnamese stock market maintain its recovery momentum and return to an upward trend.

VDSC expects that FTSE Russell will likely have positive comments on the efforts of the management agency in this assessment period and the opportunity to be approved for an upgrade by FTSE Russell in 2025 will be more feasible, when foreign investors and organizations have positive comments during the process of using Pre-funding solutions.

In terms of scores, VDSC expects the VN-Index to trade within the range of 1,250 - 1,325 in September, aiming to bring the 4% yield gap between the stock market and 10-year government bonds closer to the 5-year average value of 3.6%, corresponding to a P/E of 15.2x. This is a level that the market has touched many times since the beginning of the year when the general sentiment maintained positive momentum.

Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/yeu-thanh-khoan-khien-chung-khoan-kho-but-pha-1394058.ldo