USD exchange rate today (March 31): Negative outlook for the USD

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, stood at 104.01.

Forecast of USD trend this week

The DXY index is showing a reversal this past week.

The greenback fell as traders weighed the tough tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce this week. Optimism that President Donald Trump would be flexible on tariffs had boosted the greenback earlier in the week, but traders remained nervous ahead of his planned April 2 announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

In addition, data showing core inflation rose 0.4% in February, higher than expected, and a survey from the University of Michigan showing that consumers' 12-month inflation expectations jumped to their highest level in more than two years in March, weighed on the greenback.

The index hit a high of 104.68 before falling back to close the week at 104.01. The bullish correction to 105 that was mentioned last week has not happened yet, raising speculation that the DXY will see a fresh decline from here.

The DXY index may fall to 103 in the coming time. At that time, a break below 103 will increase the bearish pressure and pull the index down to the 102-101 zone and even to 100 in the coming weeks.

Any recovery will face resistance at 104.85 and 105.20.

Meanwhile, the support zone at 1.0730-1.07 for EUR/USD mentioned last week held very well. The EUR hit a low of 1.0733 and bounced back from there.

Current resistance for EUR/USD is at 1.0850. A break above this level could send EUR to 1.0950. A break above 1.0950 would trigger bullish momentum. Such a breakout could send EUR/USD to 1.11 or even 1.1180 in the medium term.

The outlook would turn bearish if EUR/USD breaks below 1.0730. If that happens, the currency could drop to the 1.0650-1.06 zone. If EUR/USD stays below 1.0850, the decline could be on the cards.

The 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 4.35% last week but failed to hold. It reversed lower after hitting 4.40%. Current support for the yield is at 4.2%. A break below that level could drag the yield down to 4.1% - a key support level.

A decline to 4.1% and then below 4% would be a rather bearish scenario, with the US 10-year yield likely to fall to 3.8-3.7% over the medium term.

USD exchange rate today March 31: Negative outlook for the USD. Photo: Bloomberg

USD exchange rate in the country today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on March 31, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD at 24,843 VND.

* The reference exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office has slightly decreased, currently at: 23,651 VND - 26,035 VND.

USD exchange rate at commercial banks buy and sell as follows: