On August 27, the Russian Investigative Committee confirmed that Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the private military company Wagner, was among the 10 people killed in the Embraer Legacy 600 plane crash in Russia's Tver province on the evening of August 23.
A temporary memorial site after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in Moscow on August 25.
When asked about Wagner's future after the accident, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on August 25 that Wagner does not exist as a legal structure, so it is difficult to say what the future of this company will be, according to Sputnik News Agency.
Meanwhile, a number of analysts have commented on Wagner's fate and the implications of Prigozhin's death.
Is Wagner's network maintained by Russia?
A day before the plane carrying Mr. Prigozhin crashed, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov reportedly visited Libya to reassure allies that Wagner fighters would remain in the country, according to Reuters.
During a meeting in Benghazi on August 22, Mr. Yevkurov told eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar that Wagner forces would report to a new commander, Reuters reported, citing a Libyan official.
A spokesman for Mr Haftar did not respond to questions about the meeting with the Russian official, but previously said the two discussed military cooperation, including joint training with Russian weapons. The Russian defence ministry said the talks would consider counter-terrorism cooperation.
Reuters quoted some observers as saying that the meeting was a sign that Moscow had no intention of abandoning the global network that the Wagner mercenary group had built.
Mr. Yevgeny Prigozhin in the video released on August 21
Now that Mr. Prigozhin is dead, the fate of the complex web of military and commercial operations that Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner created in Europe, the Middle East and Africa hangs in the balance.
Wagner has fought major battles in Ukraine, has been involved in conflicts in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic and Mali, and has taken control of several gold and oil mines in the region.
In Africa, Wagner may remain more or less intact under new management or be taken over by another group of Russian mercenaries. But Wagner’s ability to operate in places where Moscow may not have an official or legal presence makes it an invaluable tool in the Kremlin’s foreign policy.
"Wagner is a company that is operating. There are contracts, it is a company and it needs to continue. From a reputational perspective, (Wagner) will try to show that everything is going on normally and they are still partners," said John Lechner, a researcher in the US who is writing a book about Mr. Prigozhin.
"Replacing a dead leader"
After news of Prigozhin's alleged death in the plane crash, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on August 25 that Wagner fighters would remain in Belarus. Lukashenko also suggested that Wagner fighters were continuing to gather in Belarus, estimating their number at around 10,000, according to Sputnik.
Wagner's forces in Ukraine have handed over a base to regular Russian troops and begun moving to a military camp in Belarus under deals to end the June 23-24 uprising by Prigozhin and Wagner in Russia.
Wagner members on a tank in Rostov-on-Don (Russia) on June 24, 2023
Following the uprising, Prigozhin stepped up efforts to bolster Wagner’s presence in Africa. In a video released on August 21 from an undisclosed African country, Prigozhin declared: “The Winger PMC makes Russia greater on all continents, and makes Africa freer.”
Such a push by Wagner may not be welcomed by Moscow, and there have been reports of the Kremlin setting up alternative companies to take over Wagner's operations, but none have yet been able to do so, according to Reuters.
Analysts say little will change in countries where Wagner operates through formal agreements with Moscow. In Libya, up to 2,000 Wagner-hired guns helped Haftar’s forces attack Tripoli until a ceasefire in 2020 and protected military and oil facilities, according to Reuters, citing independent analysts.
Libya researcher Jalel Harchaoui (of the Royal United Services Institute, UK) commented that because Russia has no official military role in Libya and cannot intervene directly without violating the UN arms embargo, Moscow's involvement there must still go through Wagner or a similar organization.
Meanwhile, in the Central African Republic (CAR), President Faustin-Archange Touadera's political advisor, Fidele Gouandjika, lamented that Prigozhin's death was "a great sadness" because Prigozhin's people had "a role in helping the government during the civil war".
On the other hand, Mr. Gouandjika said that because Wagner came to CAR through a state-level agreement with Russia, "there will be no impact on the presence of this force." He also said that Mr. Prigozhin was "a dead leader, we can replace him."
Meanwhile, Burkina Faso political analyst Ousmane Pare said Wagner's uncertainty has created risks in Africa. "We can imagine the operational difficulties that Wagner may face at this time, and there will clearly be consequences for African countries where Wagner is involved," Pare commented.
The fate of Wagner's economic assets
The fate of Wagner’s purely economic assets may be harder to determine. There is no information yet on the fate of Evro Polis, a company believed to be owned by Wagner, with oil assets in Syria, according to Reuters.
There is also little information about how much money Wagner makes from mining and timber operations in the Central African Republic and other African countries. But trying to bring those assets under direct Russian control or to another contractor would be difficult.
"You can't buy a company and fire all the employees and expect things to go the same way. Maybe the way the pie is divided will change, but the pie is still there," Reuters quoted US-based researcher John Lechner.
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