4 candidates who could succeed boss Wagner

After Prigozhin and his "right-hand man" Utkin died in a plane crash, Wagner faced the challenge of finding a new leader with four prominent faces.

The Russian Investigative Committee confirmed over the weekend that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the private military company Wagner, was one of the 10 victims killed in the plane crash in Tver province on August 23. The list of passengers who died on the flight also included Dmitry Utkin, Wagner's co-founder and believed to be the organization's operational leader, with power second only to the boss.

The incident left Wagner without two of its most important leaders in one day, one who was the organization’s political voice and the other its key military mind. The influential private military organization, not only in Russia but also in the Middle East and Africa, is at risk of losing its head if it cannot find a worthy replacement.

Observers in recent days have mentioned four names that are likely to emerge as the new leader of Wagner, although it is difficult for any individual to have as much political influence and financial resources as boss Prigozhin.

Former Army Major General Agostinho Costa, vice president of the European-Portuguese Defense Association, assessed that former Russian paratrooper officer Anton Yelizarov could take on the role of Wagner's illegitimate leader during this period.

Anton Yelizarov (second from right), Wagner's commander codenamed Lotus, stands next to tycoon Prigozhin at a funeral in Volgograd in 2022. Photo: theins.ru

Yelizarov was born in 1981 and graduated from the Suvorov Military School in Ulyanovsk in 1998 and the Higher Command School of the Airborne Forces (VDV) Ryazan in Novorossiysk in 2003. He served in several Russian paratrooper and special forces units and was deployed in the North Caucasus region. He was discharged in 2016 and joined the Wagner group.

Anton Yelizarov used the codename "Lotus" when talking to Wagner units. In a video released on January 14, Mr. Prigozhin introduced Yelizarov as a Wagner commander with extensive combat experience, who had directed the operation to attack the town of Soledar near the city of Bakhmut, Donetsk province.

"While Mr. Prigozhin is strong in communications, Lotus has military command skills, which was demonstrated through the campaign to capture Soledar. This person has many advantages to succeed Prigozhin," Agostinho Costa commented.

Observers consider Yelizarov to be a combat-ready member with extensive experience in Wagner's "markets" having been with the organization for more than half a decade. Yelizarov's first assignment with Wagner was in Syria in 2017, after which he moved to the Central African Republic (CAP) as a military trainer. A year before the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Yelizarov worked in Libya as a commando unit commander.

Yelizarov once called Wagner "King Arthur's Round Table Knights", in which Prigozhin, although holding the highest leadership role, all decisions of the organization had to be unanimously approved by the Command Council. He said this mechanism was to ensure that Wagner was not corrupted or disunited, while maintaining loyalty to the organization.

The war in Ukraine became a springboard for Yelizarov’s reputation among Wagner and its supporters. The Soledar Offensive, one of the fiercest battles in Ukraine for Wagner’s forces, helped Yelizarov gain Prigozhin’s trust. The tycoon and Yelizarov appeared together at the funeral of a Wagner commander, standing next to the governor of Volgograd.

However, Anton Yelizarov is not the only name in Wagner considered capable of taking over this military corporation.

Following the Wagner rebellion in late June, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed that he had nominated “Sedoi”, a senior commander in the group, to be the new leader of the organization. The idea was raised during a June 29 meeting between the Kremlin chief and 35 Wagner commanders, including Prigozhin.

European Union (EU) sanctions records show that “Sedoi” is the code name of Andrei Troshev , one of Wagner’s top military commanders. Russian sources say he was born in 1962, grew up in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, and attended the elite artillery school in the same city.

Andrei Troshev attends a reception at the Kremlin in December 2016. Photo: Reuters

Troshev fought in Afghanistan, commanded several artillery units, and twice received the Order of the Red Star, the highest honor given to Soviet soldiers. After 1991, he continued to serve in the army and was stationed in the North Caucasus, before being transferred to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and commanding a SOBR special forces unit.

Russian media, including St. Petersburg newspaper Fontanka and the Meduza news site, said he was promoted to the rank of police colonel while working for SOBR and retired in 2014.

The EU, UK and French sanctions documents do not specify when he joined Wagner, but describe him as its chief of staff and a founding member. Prigozhin’s previous statements and Dmitry Utkin’s records suggest Wagner was founded in 2014.

"Andrei Troshev is directly linked to Wagner's military operations in Syria, specifically in the Deir al-Zor area. He has made an important contribution to the campaign of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad," the EU accused.

The former Russian police colonel was pictured with President Putin and Dmitry Utkin in a 2016 photo, reportedly on the sidelines of an event to honor Russia’s support for Syria’s recapture of Palmyra from so-called Islamic State (IS) militants. Russian media reported that Troshev was then awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation.

In an interview with Kommersant in July, Mr Putin called Troshev Wagner's "real commander all these years", but did not elaborate on the activities of the member codenamed "Sedoi". The Russian president said that many members of the 35-member Wagner group had expressed their willingness to continue serving the country under Andrei Troshev, but Mr Prigozhin rejected this proposal.

Denis Korotkov, a Wagner columnist for Novaya Gazeta in Russia, said Troshev was actually unpopular with many members of the organization because of his personal scandals. In June 2017, he was hospitalized in St. Petersburg for alcohol poisoning. When rescue workers arrived at the restaurant, they found him carrying about 5 million rubles and $5,000 in cash, along with several maps of Syria and documents listing weapons, according to Fontanka.

"Troshev could be appointed as a front leader. The leader of this organization needs to be someone who is capable of commanding all aspects, from finance to organization and politics. Wagner's structure is very difficult to maintain as before," Korotkov commented.

Western media assesses that the candidate capable of covering all aspects of leadership for Wagner is likely to be an individual outside Wagner.

Wagner members lay flowers in front of portraits of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin outside their offices in Novosibirsk, Russia, on August 24. Photo: Reuters

Benoit Bringer, a French investigative journalist and author of the documentary The Rise of Wagner released in April, said that Major General Andrey Averyanov , head of the foreign operations department of Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), could be such a person.

British authorities have accused the GRU of involvement in a number of security incidents in Europe, including the suspected nerve agent attack in Salisbury in 2018 on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal, who was taking refuge there.

Alicia Kearns, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the British House of Commons, also gave a similar assessment of the connection between General Averyanov and Wagner's future.

General Averyanov was present at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg in July. Ms. Kearns said the GRU is being arranged to take over Wagner’s operations in Africa, replacing the group with a private company controlled by the GRU.

Dr Samuel Ramani, a Russia expert for Oxford University and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said Moscow could also consider appointing former deputy defence minister Mikhail Mizintsev , who led the siege of Mariupol in 2022, as the new head of Wagner.

Wagner announced Mr Mizintsev's involvement in supporting the organisation in April, shortly after the Russian Defence Ministry removed him from his post and replaced him with former deputy commander of the National Guard Alexei Kuzmenkov.

Emily Ferris, a Russia expert at RUSI, said Moscow "may have learned that strong personalities like Prigozhin are ambitious and unpredictable", and will therefore seek to influence the process of choosing the organization's next leader.

Moscow, however, will face a significant challenge in finding someone with both leadership ability and financial resources like Prigozhin to maintain Wagner's operations.

"They need a new sponsor. Prigozhin has been the moneymaker for a long time. Wagner still has good commanders, but money is the problem," said Ruslan Trad, a security analyst for the Atlantic Council policy think tank.

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