The mysterious life of 'Prince' Wagner

Pavel Prigozhin, son of the late Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin and the emerging leader of the Wagner military organization, is just as secretive as his father.

As fighters and Wagner supporters commemorated the 40th day since the death of tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin on October 1st—a milestone in Orthodox Christian ritual marking the beginning of the soul's final journey to the afterlife—two members of the late Russian oligarch's family brought flowers to his grave in St. Petersburg.

First is Violetta, the 84-year-old mother of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who once declared she would sever all financial ties with her son to escape Western sanctions. The other figure is Pavel Yevgenyevich Prigozhin, the family's only son and the subject of speculation regarding his inheritance of the entire business empire, including the Wagner military organization.

"All my current assets, as well as those that will belong to me in the future, I leave to Pavel Yevgenyevich Prigozhin," Yevgeny Prigozhin wrote in a will, possibly drafted in March, which was circulated in images last week by pro-Wagner Telegram accounts.

The will surfaced shortly after the Kremlin released images of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Andrey Troshev, a former Russian police colonel and founding member of the Wagner Group, nicknamed "Silver Hair".

This photograph, taken of Pavel Prigozhin in St. Petersburg at an unspecified time, was collected by the open-source intelligence organization Molfar. Photo: Molfar

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in Washington, D.C., along with British military intelligence, assessed on September 29th that Troshev had completed his takeover of the leadership of the armed group left behind by Prigozhin. However, a report on October 1st, also from the ISW, noted that there was no consensus within the Wagner Group supporting Troshev. Instead, some key members wanted to install Prigozhin's son as the new leader.

Pavel Prigozhin's leadership abilities and personality remain a great mystery because the son of the late Russian oligarch keeps his private life secret and doesn't draw much media attention. Information about Pavel Prigozhin mainly appears in sanctions files released by Western governments or journalistic investigations targeting his business empire.

Pavel Prigozhin is approximately 25-27 years old, although two sources cite his birth year as either 1996 or 1998. Prigozhin's son has been subject to sanctions from at least nine countries and organizations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union (EU), Canada, Switzerland, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, and Ukraine. Pavel, along with his mother Lyubov and sister Polina, "played many roles in Prigozhin's business empire" and benefited from "the reputation of a tycoon in Russian high society," according to a 2022 investigation by the Financial Times .

In March, the U.S. Treasury Department noted that Pavel directly and indirectly controlled numerous companies and properties in St. Petersburg. Prominent among these were Lakhta Plaza, Lakhta Park, and Lakhta Park Premium. These three companies were believed to be linked to the Prigozhin-backed Internet Research Organization (IRA), whose primary mission was to conduct social media campaigns aimed at securing geopolitical interests for Russia.

Lakhta Plaza was also added to the US sanctions list in March, sharing the same phone number and auditing firm with numerous companies and organizations considered fronts for Wagner.

According to the local newspaper Bumaga, Pavel owns a business center on the Sinopskaya waterfront, in the central district of St. Petersburg. He also owns several properties in the upscale 49-villa complex near Lake Lakhta, built by Prigozhin's Concord company, with an estimated total area of ​​17,000 square meters.

The total value of the assets the tycoon left to his son remains unknown. According to images allegedly showing Prigozhin's will that circulated last week, Pavel is likely to inherit a three-story villa in St. Petersburg, approximately nine companies, and shares in his father's Concord group.

Sources close to Wagner suggest Pavel will inherit around $120 million, but a 2022 investigation by the Financial Times estimated Prigozhin's fortune at over 14.6 billion rubles ($140 million).

The Anti-Corruption Foundation, an organization founded by opposition politician Alexei Navalny, once estimated that the Wagner business empire was worth up to 2 trillion rubles (approximately $19 billion) including clandestine activities, while local news outlet Agentstvo estimated Prigozhin's total assets at $800 million.

Yevgeny Prigozhin at an event in Vladivostok, Russia, on May 31. Photo: RIA Novosti

Not only is Pavel Prigozhin closely involved in his father's business, but he is also said to have practical experience.

In September 2022, Prigozhin stated in Concord's regular news broadcast that Pavel began his military service upon turning 18. A month after completing his service, Pavel joined the Wagner Group and immediately went to the Syrian battlefield.

"My son was consistently present at many of the conflict hotspots where Wagner was involved and was even awarded the Black Cross badge," Prigozhin said, referring to the private military company's internal honor for members who demonstrated bravery on the battlefield.

Loyal members of Yevgeny Prigozhin supported his son inheriting the top command position to fulfill the leader's dying wish. Several Telegram accounts close to Wagner suggested that Pavel may have initiated negotiations with Viktor Zolotov, the leader of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia), to bring Wagner into the organization.

Rosgvardia reports directly to the Russian President's Office instead of the Ministry of Defense. This scenario would allow Wagner to avoid signing contracts with professional soldiers and continue operating independently of the military, in line with the dying wishes of its boss, Prigozhin. Wagner, however, would still remain partially dependent on the Russian Ministry of Defense for the supply of heavy weapons and ammunition.

This model has long been applied in Chechnya, a republic within the Russian Federation. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in November 2022 stated that the Chechen militias are "technically part of Rosgvardia," but in essence, they are the military force of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who has full command and organization.

Maksim Shugatei, a former political advisor to Yevgeny Prigozhin, believes Pavel has both the responsibility and the potential to become the new leader for Wagner. He also assesses that Wagner is unlikely to be completely controlled by the Russian government, whether directly by the Ministry of Defense or indirectly through government-appointed individuals.

"Wagner is not just an empire of money. It is a religion," Shugatei explained.

Thanh Danh (According to Kyiv Post, Telegraph, Financial Times, News.ru )

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