The IDF's withdrawal from Khan Younis appears to pave the way for ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, but it could also be a "diversion" by Israel.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on April 7 that it had withdrawn its 98th Commando Division from the city of Khan Younis, a stronghold of the Hamas militant group in the southern Gaza Strip, after "completing its mission" there.
The 98th Division is the most powerful force of the Israeli army, which was previously reinforced with manpower and equipment to launch a large-scale attack on Khan Younis in early December 2023. After many fierce bombardments, Israeli tanks began to enter the center of Khan Younis from mid-December 2023.
Israeli strategists had assumed that the IDF’s ground campaign in Gaza would last at least a year and be divided into several phases, with the IDF initially deploying large, division-sized units to fight in hot spots there, then switching to smaller, more mobile units to carry out smaller-scale missions.
Israeli tanks near the Gaza Strip border on February 26. Photo: AFP
But exactly six months after the war began, with the decision to withdraw from Khan Younis, Israel now maintains only a brigade-sized task force in Gaza, whose primary mission is to defend the Netzarim Corridor. This is a route that stretches from the southern Israeli settlement of Be'eri to the Mediterranean coast, running through central Gaza, dividing the strip of land in two.
The size of Israel's combat forces has been significantly reduced while they have not yet achieved their stated goal, which is to "completely eliminate Hamas".
Anshel Pfeffer, a commentator for Hareetz , said the IDF's withdrawal from Khan Younis after four months of operations sends a special signal about the ceasefire negotiations, as well as the future of the hostages being held by Hamas.
Hamas has repeatedly said it will only release the hostages if the Israeli army completely withdraws from the Gaza Strip. Alistair Bunkall, an analyst for Sky News , said the IDF's move was a "compromise" to promote a long-stalled ceasefire with Hamas.
It is no coincidence that the Israeli army announced its withdrawal at the same time that high-level negotiations with the armed group were expected to resume, according to this expert.
Jerusalem Post columnist Yonah Bob echoed the sentiment. Bob said the Israeli military has long believed that putting pressure on Khan Younis, an area of both moral and military importance to Hamas, is the “only way” to force the militant group to give in and agree to release the hostages.
The withdrawal from Khan Younis shows that the IDF has admitted that this strategy has failed. "Israel will need to come up with a new strategy or make bigger concessions to Hamas to get more hostages back, including opening the northern part of the strip," Bob wrote.
Pfeffer also said Israel could soon reach a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas after the IDF withdraws all troops from the group's stronghold in southern Gaza.
Another issue that has emerged following the Israeli military’s move is its plan to attack the city of Rafah in the southernmost Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly affirmed that he will continue to send troops into Rafah, where about 1.5 million Palestinians are taking refuge, to “eradicate the roots” of Hamas, despite opposition from the international community.
Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip in this photo posted on April 7. Photo: IDF
But in a meeting with the Israeli cabinet on the morning of April 7, Mr. Netanyahu only briefly mentioned the Rafah issue. Instead, the Israeli prime minister focused on the urgent need to return the hostages, a topic to which he had previously paid less attention.
Along with the IDF's withdrawal from Khan Younis, Pfeffer said this was a sign that Mr. Nentayahu may have changed his mind about sending troops into the city of Rafah, to focus on efforts to rescue hostages and restore his reputation in the eyes of Israeli public opinion.
People in this country have recently been protesting continuously, demanding that his government do more to bring the hostages back.
"If Hamas and Israel reach a ceasefire agreement, the Rafah offensive will be delayed until the agreement is concluded. Even if the two sides cannot find common ground, the offensive will almost certainly not happen in the near future," Pfeffer said.
Bunkall also said that the IDF's withdrawal from Khan Younis means that the Israeli army will be unlikely to launch a large-scale ground operation against Rafah, "at least in the short term."
Expert Bob commented that in case the negotiations with Hamas collapse, the IDF would still benefit from withdrawing from Khan Younis, because they could open the door to attack Rafah more conveniently, thereby pushing Hamas into a dead end and eventually forcing them to accept a deal more favorable to Israel.
According to him, the absence of Israeli soldiers in Khan Younis will create conditions for hundreds of thousands of refugees in Rafah to return, without Israel having to launch an evacuation campaign through the humanitarian corridor.
This could help Israel gain important support from the US. Washington previously said it would only support Tel Aviv's attack on Rafah if it could come up with a feasible plan to evacuate more than a million refugees, something the US feared Israel would find difficult to do.
Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip in this photo posted on February 27. Photo: IDF
The withdrawal from Khan Younis could also be a "diversion" tactic by the IDF, pretending to retreat so that Hamas can regroup its scattered forces in one place, then launch a one-off attack like it did with Al-Shifa hospital.
The Israeli military invaded Gaza’s largest hospital in November 2023, accusing Hamas of establishing a command center there. The IDF then withdrew, then launched a surprise raid on the hospital on March 18, claiming to have received intelligence that the militant group had regrouped at the facility.
The Israeli military announced the end of the operation on April 1, saying it had killed more than 200 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants gathered at the hospital. Hamas and PIJ denied this information, saying that those killed at the hospital were mainly civilian refugees and medical staff.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also stated on April 7 that the IDF's purpose in withdrawing from southern Gaza was to prepare for an attack on Rafah. "We will make it so that Hamas no longer controls the strip and cannot continue to act as a military force capable of endangering Israeli citizens," he emphasized.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on the same day that the IDF's move was to help its soldiers rest and re-equip themselves after four months of exhausting combat, before entering a new campaign.
Location of cities in the Gaza Strip. Graphics: BBC
Pham Giang (According to Hareetz, ToI, Sky News, Jerusalem Post)
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