The World Between Two Super Elections (Part I)

2024 is a special year, a super election, with more than 2 billion voters voting in about 50 countries, including Russia and the United States.

The election results in Russia and the US not only choose the leader, guide, and decide the journey and position of the country and people, but also influence the very tense, complicated, decades-long relationship between the two major countries, two leading rivals, and strongly impact the world, regional, and international relations situation.

The election in the land of white birch trees is over. The land of the stars and stripes is preparing for the final stage. What is the future of each country and the relationship between the US and Russia? How will the world change? The issues raised are of great scope, very relevant and extremely necessary. However, in the current uncertain and unpredictable context of the world, finding a complete and accurate answer is very difficult and will take a long time. Initially, some explanations and predictions can be made.

Part I. STORIES FROM THE LAND OF BIRCELLAS

The results of the Russian presidential election were as predicted, with a resounding victory for incumbent President Vladimir Putin.

The referendum and the convergence of many factors

The Russian presidential election ended two weeks ago. The incumbent President Vladimir Putin was elected to a fifth term with a trust rating of 87.28%, in an election that attracted a record 77.44% voter turnout. The results were as predicted, but still somewhat surprising and raised many questions, not only for Russia.

The global and domestic context has both advantages and disadvantages for President Putin. Russia maintains a certain advantage on the battlefield; the country is basically stable, the economy has risen to the top 5; relations with many countries in the Middle East and Africa have been maintained, despite the pressure of sanctions in various fields from the West.

The special military campaign has entered its third year, with losses in terms of manpower, weapons, economy, infrastructure, etc. accumulating, penetrating deeply, and increasing in impact over time. Ukrainian missiles and UAVs have attacked many targets deep inside the territory and soldiers have violated some border areas of Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron has warned that he may send troops to Ukraine...

The opponents want to show that they can attack anywhere and Russia is unstable. Before the election, some countries have said they do not accept the results, implying that confrontation will increase, and the Russian people will have more difficulties if they continue to support President Putin. So the election record is somewhat surprising to some people, which is understandable.

For the majority of Russians, the result is not unusual. The outstanding characteristics of the Russian people are patriotism, kindness, loyalty, endurance, sacrifice, strength, steadfastness... Pressure and threats make Russians put more faith in the person who has led them through difficulties and challenges. Russian traditions, culture, and character are fundamental factors. The election result is a political victory for the country and President Putin, and is meaningful as a referendum on the future of Russia.

Leading the world's largest country, with many rivals and winning the trust of 146 million people is not simple. Steering the "Russian ship" through big waves, President Putin has maintained the trust of the majority of the people; proving his great role for Russia, especially in the current complicated context. The greater the challenge, the more united the Russian people; the greater the pressure, the greater the resilience. So it can be said that pressure and sabotage from outside are also factors that make the Russian people continue to hand the flag to the current President.

Nothing is absolutely perfect; there are still issues that make a part of the people and society unsatisfied. In general, President Putin has basically met the wishes of the majority of the people. It can be said that electing Mr. Putin as President for 5 terms is a suitable choice in the history of the Russian nation. The result is the convergence of many factors, traditions, national culture, Russian character, the times, historical circumstances and the role and qualities of a leader.

Ensuring harmony between defense spending and improving people's lives is a difficult problem for Russia. (Source: Moscow Times)

Maintain, strengthen and promote development

Entering the new term, Russia and President Putin have a solid support from the people, from results on the military front, the economic field, maintaining influence with many southern countries...

Besides, new difficulties and challenges also appear. With a large land area, few people, and a long battlefield, Russia cannot avoid sudden terrorist attacks from missiles, planes, and UAVs. The bloody terrorist attack in Moscow on March 22 is an example. President Putin and the Kremlin spokesman declared for the first time that Russia is “at war” in Ukraine.

In the new context, President Putin needs and will adjust his strategy, tactics and tactics. Russia needs to synchronously carry out basic goals and tasks on the military, political, social, economic and diplomatic fronts; following the motto: maintain, consolidate and promote appropriate and effective development.

The military, the top priority front, needs to consolidate the battle position, protect the territory; step up combat operations, strive to achieve strategic goals, and create conditions to end the conflict with the most feasible results possible. The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the losses and disadvantages, in military, political, diplomatic, economic terms...

In the next few months, foreign aid will not be able to arrive and take effect immediately, Ukraine may have difficulties with aircraft, missiles, etc. Russia will develop its forces, equip more means, create conditions to promote military operations with greater intensity, both expanding the scope and attack targets and focusing on key points, ensuring the effectiveness of attack and hold. However, it is difficult to maintain high intensity continuously for a long time.

In 2023, the Russian economy grew at a high rate compared to Europe (approximately 3.5%), but somewhat overheated, causing inflation to increase sharply. It is forecasted that in 2024, the growth rate will be lower, while demand remains high. Ensuring harmony between defense spending and improving people's lives is a difficult problem. Russia needs to implement flexible and appropriate measures to develop the economy, especially the oil and gas sector, to meet defense needs, improve people's lives; and contribute significantly to maintaining political and social stability.

Continue to consolidate and expand relations, improve the effectiveness of cooperation with countries, especially major partners, traditional friends, countries with common risks, rivals, similar interests, and important roles in strategic areas. The intensity of diplomatic activities may be higher. President Putin's first foreign trip is likely to be to China, aiming to promote "unlimited" cooperation.

Many countries also have a need for two-way, mutually beneficial relations and cooperation with Russia. The head of the Kremlin has received invitations from more than a dozen countries and attended a number of major international conferences. After China, the Russian President may visit Brazil, Iran, North Korea, Turkey, India, Cuba, Mongolia, etc. The plan will be arranged in order of priority in terms of goals, the importance of relations with partners and ensuring high security.

(to be continued)

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/the-gioi-giua-hai-cuoc-sieu-bau-cu-ky-i-266008.html