The fate of Russia's military base in Armenia in the "eye of the storm"

When Russian President Vladimir Putin visited his country’s military base in Armenia in 2013, the Russian leader struck a confident tone. “Russia will never leave. On the contrary, we will strengthen our positions here,” he said at the time.

Today, however, Russia’s position in the Caucasus nation appears more shaky than ever. Armenians’ confidence in their centuries-old alliance with Russia is at an all-time low. Armenian officials are increasingly open about severing security ties with Moscow and have begun taking the first steps in that direction.

Following Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's announcement that Armenia has suspended its participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the head of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan announced a demand to end the activities of Russian Border Guards at Zvartnots International Airport in the capital Yerevan.

At the same time, Armenia has made unprecedented overtures to the West, including discussing the possibility of applying for membership in the European Union (EU).

But in the face of this geopolitical “storm,” Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Gyumri – the most important element in the two countries’ security partnership – seems to have taken root more firmly than ever.

Military outpost

The base's tanks, jets and watchtowers are a tangible expression of Armenians' traditional belief in Russia's protection against foreign enemies. Thousands of Russian soldiers and officers have long been a part of daily life in Gyumri, Armenia's second-largest city.

And even as speculation grows about possible “pivots,” the base remains largely immune to Armenia’s dramatic shift in foreign policy.

The base's lease expires in 2044, and neither opponents nor supporters of the Russian base's presence on Armenian soil see much chance of it being closed before then.

“We are happy with them,” said an Armenian man whose shop is located near the base. “There are some people in Yerevan who want them to leave, but we in Gyumri want them to stay,” he said, referring to the Russian troops stationed at Military Base 102.

World - The fate of Russia's military base in Armenia in the — The entrance to the Russian Military Base No. 102 in Gyumri, Armenia. Photo: Sputnik

The main function of the base, established in 1941, is evident from its location: on the western edge of Gyumri, less than 10 kilometers from the border with Türkiye, Armenia's longtime enemy. Armenians have long relied on Russia for protection, and Gyumri has played a key role in its defense.

The Russian presence here makes the Armenian-Turkish border “the last part of the Iron Curtain,” said Levon Barseghian, president of the Gyumri-based Asparez Journalists Club.

Today, a plaque at the main entrance to the base bears a portrait of a stern Russian President Putin and the quote: “Russia's growing military power is a reliable guarantee of peace on our planet, because it maintains and will maintain the strategic balance of forces in the world.”

However, the base does not show much of Russia's power. Most of the military equipment at the base is of the old generation: T-72 tanks, S-300 air defense systems and MiG-29 fighter jets.

“The base has never been able to fight the Turkish armed forces. The resources there are quite limited, about 4,000-5,000 soldiers, 80 tanks,” said Leonid Nersisian, a military analyst at APRI Armenia, a Yerevan-based think tank. “It is more politically convenient.”

Broken relationship

Armenia's confidence in Russia's security guarantees began to wane in 2020, during the second war with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

While the fighting is taking place on territory internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan – and therefore technically not triggering Russia’s mutual defense obligations – many Armenians still see Russia’s stance in the conflict as too unfair for a country that is supposed to be their ally.

Since the conflict, Armenia has sought to strengthen its military alliance, welcoming the expansion of Russian bases and Moscow's deployment of some troops to its border with Azerbaijan.

Russia currently maintains a battalion in the city of Goris, near the Azerbaijani border, set up to support the 2,000-strong Russian force deployed to Karabakh under a ceasefire agreement that ended the war in 2020. Moscow has also established new border posts along the southern part of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

The real tension in Armenia-Russia relations began shortly after President Putin launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine in February 2022. In the events surrounding Azerbaijan that followed, Armenia argued that the CSTO’s collective defense clause should have been invoked. But nothing happened.

Armenian officials have become increasingly critical of their traditional ally. Prime Minister Pashinian said in interviews that the alliance with Russia was a “strategic mistake,” and that “unfortunately we have not seen the advantages” of the Russian base in Gyumri.

In recent weeks, the harsh rhetoric has begun to turn into action. Armenia said it had sent a written request to the Russian border guards who were providing security at the airport in Yerevan to leave by August 1.

Russian officials have reacted cautiously. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that contacts between the Russian and Armenian governments would continue “at every possible level.”

Viktor Bondarev, First Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee in the Federation Council (upper house of parliament), Russia, called Armenia's troop withdrawal request “the first major unfriendly step, which implies that we are no longer welcome in Armenia. In fact, this is Armenia's slow and steady slide towards unfriendliness.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said this was just one in a “series of unfriendly steps” that risked causing “irreparable damage” to bilateral relations.

Earlier this month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov similarly said that Moscow would “seriously reconsider” its relationship with Yerevan if Armenia continued to drift away from its traditional ally and align itself with the West.

The deciding factor

The turmoil of the past few years has led to fundamental changes in the Armenian public’s perception of its security threats. In a poll released earlier in March, the International Republican Institute found that 66 percent of Armenians viewed their relationship with Russia as comparable to their relationship with Türkiye.

Respondents also considered Russia only their fourth most important security partner, after France, Iran and the United States.

In Gyumri, opinions about the Russian military base seem mixed. Many appreciate the economic benefits it brings to the city: Russian soldiers, officers and their families shop in local stores and eat in local restaurants.

“They spend money in the shops and cafes here so we don’t see anything wrong with that,” said the owner of a shop opposite the base.

A man selling used mobile phones at the central market in Gyumri said that while he had lost faith in the Russians as security guarantors, that had not changed his view of the base in Gyumri. “The base has been here for a long time and it has not bothered anyone,” he said.

Regardless of how far Armenia decides to move toward Europe and away from Russia, Base 102 will likely be the “hardest” element in the Armenian-Russian relationship. Armenian officials have also been cautious about talking about the base, saying only that expelling Russian troops is not on the agenda.

Prime Minister Pashinian, when asked about the issue in an interview, said: “We do not discuss such a question. Now we are more focused on discussing other issues.”

The fate of the base will likely depend on whether Armenia tries to diversify its security relationships, or whether it moves more aggressively closer to the West, said Nersisian, a military analyst at APRI Armenia.

“If it’s a full-scale movement toward new allies, then it could happen at some point,” the expert said. “If it’s more of a balancing of the existing system, a real diversification, then maybe the base will survive . ”

Minh Duc (According to RFE/RL, Asbarez)

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