VinaCapital CEO: This sell-off creates buying opportunities

Cơ hội - Ảnh 1. — Investors look at the board at a securities company - Photo: QUANG DINH

There is no shortage of opportunities.

After the information about the reciprocal tax from the US was announced, the VN-Index fell nearly 7% in the session on April 3, with selling pressure spread across the entire market.

Investors still need more time and information to assess the real impact of this policy on the economy and profit growth of listed enterprises.

Michael Kokalari, director of macroeconomic analysis and market research at VinaCapital Fund Management (VCFM), said the firm is assessing the impact of the tax rate with established scenarios for different investment portfolios. At the same time, they are looking for buying opportunities when stock prices fall in the short term.

"This sell-off creates an opportunity for active fund managers to buy stocks with good fundamentals and less direct impact from tax policy, at more attractive valuations," said Mr. Michael Kokalari.

The businesses that stand to benefit most are those that will be supported by government efforts to offset the impact of tariffs on GDP growth.

To contribute to ensuring fair and balanced trade, one of the solutions mentioned by the VCFM representative is to urgently import more goods from the US.

"We have heard from secondary sources that Trump administration officials appreciate Vietnam's initial efforts to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. But they will not accept the 'will buy in the future' promises as before," said Michael Kokalari.

How to calculate US counterpart tax

According to VCFM, the 46% reciprocal tax rate that the US imposes on Vietnamese goods is based on the assessment of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).

The CEA found that Vietnam was imposing a 90% tariff on imports from the US. This figure was then halved to give a final “reciprocal” tariff of 46% for Vietnam, according to a formula that can be found on the website of the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).

This formula includes an estimate of the price elasticity of imports from the US and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices.

However, the report published on April 1, 2025 by USTR stated that "most US exports to Vietnam are subject to tariffs of 15% or less".

In addition, other independent analyses also show that Vietnam's import tax on goods from the US is only about 7 percentage points higher than the US import tax on goods from Vietnam. When calculating the proportion of import turnover by each group of goods, the difference in import tax between the two countries is equivalent.

However, the White House has claimed that Vietnam imposes tariffs of up to 90% on imports from the US. However, this 90% figure is calculated by dividing the US trade deficit with Vietnam by total imports from Vietnam.

Accordingly, this tax rate is determined by taking the US$123 billion trade deficit with Vietnam in 2024 and dividing it by the US$137 billion import turnover of goods from Vietnam to the US.

This calculation is similar to President Trump's statement when announcing the tax rate on the "tariff on imports from the United States" figures.

The figures for the trade deficit and imports are taken directly from Appendix II of the previously released USTR report. This calculation reflects the spirit of President Trump's previous statements that countries with large trade surpluses with the United States are "taking advantage" of the United States.

So they have built their entire tariff policy around trade balance figures, or at least used that figure as the basis for their initial stance in the upcoming negotiations.

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Source: https://tuoitre.vn/sep-vinacapital-dot-ban-thao-nay-tao-co-hoi-mua-vao-20250404003656167.htm