Real estate market recovers - domestic steel demand increases
According to the steel industry outlook report for 2025 titled “The main growth driver comes from the domestic channel”, SSI Research experts said that domestic demand may maintain stable growth in the coming time, while exports may slow down.
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| Steel companies will continue to record positive profit growth in 2025. Photo: Hoa Phat Steel |
Specifically, domestic steel demand will increase by 10% in 2025, when the real estate market has had a strong recovery in 2024 specifically, the number of newly opened apartments is forecast to double compared to 2023.
In addition, major long-term infrastructure projects include expressways (both North-South, and East-West for better connectivity), airports and seaports (such as Can Gio in Ho Chi Minh City and Nam Do Son port in Hai Phong) and railways.
According to the World Steel Association, global steel demand is expected to recover by 1.2% in 2025 after falling by 0.9% in 2024. Demand from major export markets, such as Europe, the United States and ASEAN, is expected to increase by 2% to 3.5% over the same period due to expectations of easing global monetary policy.
However, steel exports may face more pressure from global protectionism. One notable case is the US Department of Commerce’s anti-dumping investigation into corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) imports from Vietnam, along with nine other countries. The US accounted for 14.4% of Vietnam’s steel exports in the first nine months of 2024, behind Europe (22.4%) and ASEAN (25.2%). China’s steel exports increased 22.6% year-on-year to 101.15 million tonnes in the first 11 months of 2024 after rising 36% in 2023.
2025 positive signal
Assessing the prospects of the steel industry, Mr. Duong Duc Quang, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), said that this year, the Vietnamese steel industry has shown many signs of recovery and has gradually stabilized after a long period of decline. The recovery data is still mainly compared based on the low base level of last year. Therefore, in the short term, our steel industry has not been able to break through to a new growth phase and is expected to continue to be sluggish, at least in the first half of next year. However, in terms of opportunities, this can be considered a time for the Vietnamese steel industry to make efforts to improve and seek a more sustainable direction in the future.
SSI Research believes that steel companies will continue to record positive profit growth in 2025.
For example, Hoa Phat Group (HPG) is likely to benefit the most from the recovery of the real estate market, increased public investment disbursement and protectionist policies. In addition, construction steel and HRC are less dependent on exports, with the export proportions being 20% and 35% of total output in 11 months of 2024, respectively, compared to 56% for galvanized steel.
In the immediate future, to “revive” the steel industry, according to economic experts, ministries, sectors and localities need to step up the implementation of public investment projects; remove difficulties for the real estate market, lead and attract investment from the whole society to increase total demand for the steel industry.
At the same time, urgently and effectively implement regional and local planning and national sectoral planning, including 4 sectoral planning in the fields of energy and minerals, contributing to creating demand for consumption and exploitation and processing of minerals for steel production.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has recently requested industry associations to promote their role as a bridge to support steel production and trading enterprises; strengthen forecasting and provide information on the demand for iron and steel, especially construction steel, to enterprises to balance the demand for steel supplied to the domestic market and for export; actively support steel enterprises to be proactive in production, balance domestic consumption and export of steel products to improve production and business efficiency.
| According to the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to December 15, 2024, Vietnam earned 8.75 billion USD from exporting 12.16 million tons of iron and steel, up 10.4% in value and 15.8% in volume over the same period last year. With this result, iron and steel export turnover in 2024 could reach 9 billion USD and approach the previously achieved 11 billion USD mark. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/nhu-cau-thep-noi-dia-du-bao-tang-10-trong-nam-2025-367486.html
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