Talking about the recent excitement of the stock market, at the Seminar "Stock Market: Building Foundation - Accumulating - Accelerating", Mr. Ho Sy Hoa - Director of Research and Investment Consulting, DNSE Securities Company said that it was due to the combination of many factors.
On the external front, global markets are expecting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates as early as 2024, possibly around May.
Regarding the internal factors of the economy, the market has witnessed a clear recovery of the macroeconomic foundation from all major components of the economy, from industrial production, manufacturing sector to FDI and import-export groups.
In terms of monetary and fiscal policies, the State Bank has taken very positive actions since the beginning of the year, such as providing a 15% credit limit for banks, actively supporting businesses and the economy in 2024, thereby positively impacting the stock market this year.
Currently, some leading enterprises have recovered from the bottom, for example the steel group. According to Mr. Hoa, to continue supporting the recovery of enterprises, the top issue is the reduction of capital costs, specifically the interest rates lowered by banks. This is a solution that needs to continue to be implemented in the short term.
Meanwhile, Mr. Tran Hoang Son - Director of Market Strategy at VPBank Securities Company said that this year is a year of transition after profits bottomed out in 2023. Businesses will grow again higher than the low base level.
“The stock market is in a new uptrend cycle. This uptrend comes from two factors. The first is policy orientation, we have growth momentum in the next two years for the emerging market wave. The second is the recovery momentum of businesses. These two factors will ensure that the stock market will grow quite well in 2024,” Mr. Son shared.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son - Director of Market Strategy, VPBank Securities Company spoke at the seminar.
According to experts from VPBankS, this year there will be 1-2 correction waves before the market continues to rise. The correction can make investors lose confidence in the market in the short term, so investors need to calculate the market's resistance points such as 1,326 points and 1,350 points. This is the point at which investors should avoid chasing the market.
When the market adjusts to a lower support level such as 1,160 - 1,200 points, investors can now open a new buying position.
In the long-term cycle, Vietnam is in the period of receiving the wave of upgrading to emerging market status. Looking back at the cycle of the Vietnamese stock market, there were periods of strong growth such as 2006 - 2007, 2016 - 2017, the VN-Index increased sharply, possibly surpassing the historical peak of 2020, which may not happen this year but in 2025 - 2026.
Regarding the industry groups that will lead the wave and attract cash flow in the coming time, Mr. Son said that there are three groups of stocks that investors should pay attention to. The first is banks with large capitalization that affect the index, there are sessions when the trading proportion of this group accounts for nearly 30% of the total market liquidity.
The second industry group is securities, which is the industry that investors favor in 2023 and early 2024 in terms of recovery and upgrading stories.
Third is the construction and construction materials industry, including steel stocks. In addition, the infrastructure construction group is also receiving attention as public investment is boosted .
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