Improving the capacity to forecast agricultural product consumption markets

In recent years, thanks to good market forecasting, the provincial agricultural sector has limited the situation of "good harvest, low price" and "broken" production and consumption contracts between enterprises, cooperatives and farmers. Also from good market forecasting, cooperatives and people have built production and business plans suitable to market demand and limited risks at the output stage, contributing to increasing people's income, towards sustainable agricultural production.

Improving the capacity to forecast agricultural product consumption markets Toan Nang Agricultural Service Cooperative, Truong Xuan Commune (Tho Xuan) applies agricultural mechanization to harvest spring rice crop 2024.

Previously, due to lack of information on agricultural production, when hearing that a product such as vegetables, sweet corn, potatoes had a good price, people in Nga Yen commune (Nga Son) expanded their acreage even though they did not know where to consume or where to sell the product. Mr. Mai Trung Thong, head of Yen Loc village, said: Nearly 10 years ago, the problem of "good harvest, low price" occurred persistently and frequently in the locality. Many products such as potatoes, watermelons, and vegetables, which were local strengths, became "debts" when they were produced but had no place to sell them. Along with that, the characteristic of agricultural products is that they have a short shelf life, so when they cannot be sold, they spoil, causing great economic losses. Learning from experience and with the guidance of local authorities and the agricultural sector, since 2016, people have produced based on analysis: is there a large market demand for that item? Are there any reputable businesses or agents that purchase and consume the products?... Thanks to that, the economic efficiency of agricultural production has increased significantly, and people can confidently produce and get rich in the fields.

Visiting the safe vegetable, root and fruit production area of Nga Yen commune. More than 8 hectares of land are always covered with green of all kinds of crops. While taking care of the Kim Hoang Hau melon area in the greenhouse area, Mr. Pham Van Sau and his wife said: the area of 7 sao of fertile land was previously used by the family to grow potatoes, seasonal vegetables and melons. However, when people in the area and neighboring localities simultaneously produced, consumption was difficult and economic efficiency was low, so the family chose to invest in producing high-quality, off-season vegetables and fruits. These are products with high market demand, easy to consume, and higher economic efficiency. Thanks to this analysis, the people of Nga Yen commune have invested in more than 21,000m2 of greenhouses to produce a variety of high-quality, off-season vegetables, roots and fruits, contributing to raising the average production value of the whole commune to about 200 million VND/ha/year.

The 2024 spring crop is considered one of the successful production crops of Toan Nang Agricultural Service Cooperative, Truong Xuan Commune (Tho Xuan). Based on the seasonal orientation and production structure of the agricultural sector, the Cooperative has put into production a number of high-quality rice varieties such as ST25, TBR225, Bac Huong 9, Tan Uu... These are rice varieties with good rice quality, favored by the market, so many businesses and traders buy them in large quantities. Therefore, the Cooperative has mobilized local people to mass-produce large-scale rice varieties that are considered to have high economic efficiency. Along with that, the Cooperative's management board regularly monitors information and forecasts on weather and pests in the agricultural sector to come up with appropriate care and protection plans, so the average rice yield of the whole commune is estimated at about 71 quintals/ha, 3 quintals/ha higher than the average of the whole province. Mr. Ngo Dinh Su, director of the cooperative, said: Not only does the cooperative research and study the market for rice varieties with good consumption, the cooperative also proactively cooperates with businesses so that when the local harvest season comes, the units will come to buy rice at a stable price. In addition, through forecasts and market research of the agricultural sector, the cooperative also guides people to focus on appropriate crop production and livestock breeding, and encourages the development of agricultural products with production and product consumption links. Thanks to that, in Truong Xuan commune for many years, there has not been a situation of good harvest and low prices, ensuring income for farmers.

Production reality shows that, in order to make market forecasts close to reality, specialized units under the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development have surveyed, analyzed, evaluated, and forecasted factors affecting and influencing the circulation and consumption of agricultural products in the province, domestically and for export. On that basis, local authorities and farmers are recommended to produce appropriate products in reasonable quantities at specific times. Accordingly, localities have restructured crop varieties, implemented crop rotation measures, and spread out crops to reduce consumption pressure on the main crop. At the same time, ensure and increase the consumption price of products.

Currently, to support market forecasting, the Prime Minister has issued Decision No. 975/QD-TTg dated August 11, 2022 approving the Project "Promoting the application of information technology in collecting information and forecasting the agricultural product market situation", with the goal of completing the construction of a centralized data center of the agricultural sector by 2025 in an in-depth direction to serve the analysis and forecasting of the agricultural product market situation. Along with that, every year, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development also coordinates with relevant departments, branches and units to organize training courses on analysis and forecasting of agricultural product market information for cooperatives and agricultural - forestry - fishery production households in the province. Through the training courses, managers at all levels, enterprises, cooperatives and cooperative groups participating are equipped with basic knowledge about the market, skills in exploiting, searching, synthesizing, analyzing and evaluating the agricultural product market. At the same time, guide entities to adjust production and business plans in accordance with actual conditions to ensure stable supply, balance supply and demand, maintain links to help people feel secure in production, business and make profits.

Article and photos: Le Hoa

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