In 2025, rubber exports are expected to continue to grow.

In 2025, Vietnam's rubber exports are expected to continue to grow as Chinese demand shows signs of recovery.

Rubber export prices hit 10-year high

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cited statistics from the General Department of Customs, saying that in 2024, Vietnam exported a total of 2 million tons of rubber, down 6.2% compared to 2023. However, due to prices remaining high, the export turnover of this item still increased sharply by 18.2% and reached a record of more than 3.4 billion USD.

In 2025, rubber exports are expected to continue to grow. Photo: Illustration

The average export price of rubber in 2024 will reach 1,701 USD/ton, the highest level recorded in more than 10 years, up 26% (equivalent to an increase of 351 USD/ton) compared to 2023. This price increase is driven by global supply shortages and unfavorable weather in major producing countries.

Vietnam's rubber export activities last year recorded very positive results, despite a sharp decline in demand in the key market of China.

In 2024, Vietnam's rubber exports to the Chinese market will reach 1.45 million tons, worth 2.44 billion USD, down 15.1% in volume but up 7.6% in value compared to 2023, accounting for 72.1% of the total rubber export volume of our country; In contrast, rubber exports to the second largest market, India, will increase by 8.7% in volume and 35.2% in value compared to 2023.

Enterprises also expanded exports to many other markets such as Germany, the United States, Taiwan, Russia, Indonesia, etc. In particular, the amount of rubber exported to the Malaysian market increased 5.3 times compared to 2023, reaching 38,442 tons.

2024 will also see rubber exports to the EU market increase by 29%, as European importers increase imports ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) which was expected to come into effect at the end of 2024. However, the implementation of this Regulation was later postponed for 1 year.

Looking ahead to 2025, Vietnam’s rubber exports are expected to continue to grow as Chinese demand shows signs of recovery. Meanwhile, global supply is expected to remain tight.

Data from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) shows that rubber production in major producing countries in Southeast Asia has been on a downward trend in recent years.

Specifically, Thailand’s natural rubber production in the 2019-2024 period has decreased from 4.85 million tons to 4.7 million tons. Similarly, Indonesia’s production has decreased from 3.3 million tons to 2.5 million tons and Malaysia’s production from 640,000 to 340,000 tons in the same period. This decline in production is likely to exacerbate the global supply shortage, pushing prices higher in the coming years.

However, there are also opinions that the average monthly price of natural rubber has decreased due to uncertain factors such as: EUDR regulation is temporarily suspended; concerns about the impact of tariffs on trade; crude oil prices fluctuate inconsistently, but tend to decrease. These uncertain factors have led to buyers taking a "wait and see" stance and tending to stock up on raw materials from suppliers with more competitive prices to prepare for future growth in demand, which is still within expectations.

Enhance competition, aiming for over 10 billion USD

Although the EUDR regulation has been delayed by one year, according to experts, this is still one of the major challenges for the rubber industry, requiring imported products, including rubber, to clearly demonstrate their origin and comply with environmental protection standards. Therefore, businesses need to invest in production processes and improve traceability capabilities to meet the requirements of international markets, especially the EU.

According to Mr. Hoang Minh Chien - Deputy Director of the Trade Promotion Agency (Ministry of Industry and Trade), the trend of transitioning to a green economy, the increasing demand for sustainability, environment, and economics in the entire supply chain, along with deep integration into the world economy, is opening up challenges and opportunities for the Vietnamese rubber industry.

Therefore, in addition to promoting the Vietnam Rubber certification mark at international fairs and exhibitions and through e-commerce channels, the Vietnam Rubber Association also needs to coordinate with trade promotion agencies to support businesses in finding new partners, expanding export markets and increasing the value of the Vietnamese rubber brand.

Encourage businesses in the industry to promote the application of sustainable development standards, reduce carbon emissions and build green value chains; meet the strict standards of EUDR regulations.

According to the Vietnam Rubber Association, if rubber and rubber wood products are included, the industry’s total export turnover in 2024 will reach 10.2 billion USD. This is not only a testament to the efforts of businesses in the industry but also a driving force for businesses to bring the Vietnamese rubber brand further.

Despite many challenges, the Vietnamese rubber industry still has opportunities for sustainable development. Mr. Le Thanh Hung - Chairman of the Vietnam Rubber Association - affirmed that the Vietnamese rubber industry is actively promoting solutions to protect the environment, manage product origins and improve competitiveness. Meeting environmental protection requirements and improving product quality will help the industry maintain strong growth and affirm its position in the global supply chain.

The Vietnam Rubber Association said that despite facing many challenges from extreme weather and strict market requirements, the rubber industry still expects to develop strongly in 2025. It is forecasted that the industry's total export turnover will reach over 11 billion USD. Of which, natural rubber is expected to reach about 3.5 billion USD, meeting the increasing demand of the international market; rubber products will reach about 5 billion USD, thanks to the promotion of high-quality product production, meeting strict technical standards. Rubber wood alone will reach about 2.5 billion USD, maximizing sustainable value from environmentally friendly and recycled raw materials.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/nam-2025-xuat-khau-cao-su-ky-vong-tiep-tuc-tang-truong-370177.html