Chechen forces attempt to replace Wagner

In the wake of Wagner's rebellion, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is trying to show loyalty to President Vladimir Putin.

General Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s Chechen Republic, is seeking to emphasize his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. On June 28, he posted a photo with Mr. Putin on Telegram and boasted about their meeting the day before.

Hours after Wagner’s forces marched toward Moscow on June 24, a video posted on Kadyrov’s Telegram channel showed their fighters guarding a deserted bridge. “Whoever they are, we will bury the traitors and complete any task assigned to us,” the Chechen said into the camera.

However, the videos were allegedly shot in Moscow on the afternoon of June 24, after the Wagner rebellion had ended, and in Kostroma, a city that Yevgeny Prigozhin's forces had not visited during that time.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a photo posted on June 28. Photo: Telegram/ Kadyrov — Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a photo posted on June 28. Photo: *Telegram/ Kadyrov*

Mr Kadyrov has led the Chechen Republic since 2007 and has become one of President Putin's closest allies. But observers say Chechen forces have focused more on their social media presence than on actual success on the battlefield, making them skeptical that Chechen forces can provide Russia with the kind of support Wagner has.

Chechen forces have been active in the Ukrainian battlefield since February 2022. Kadyrov and his Chechen comrades have been posting videos on social media, often showing troops in uniform marching in an area but with little sign of fighting.

Their actual military successes have also been limited. "The Chechen forces project a strong image, parade their weapons and equipment, but on the battlefield in Ukraine, we have not seen them make a significant impact, especially along the front lines," said Alex Kokcharov, a Russia analyst.

Kokcharov added that Chechen forces were most visible in areas already under Russian control. Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner had real successes during the war, such as helping Russia capture the city of Bakhmut.

Early in Russia’s campaign, Kadyrov sent several Chechen units to the front lines, where they were expected to play a key role in Moscow’s plan to take control of Kiev. But the units suffered heavy losses in the early days, causing Kadyrov to rethink his decision to go to war, according to Emil Aslan, a professor of security studies at Charles University in Prague.

"He understands that the war will cost his forces a lot and he cannot afford to accept that," Aslan said, adding that Kadyrov depends on his experienced army to maintain his position at home.

"To maintain power, Kadyrov needs two things: the support of President Putin and the strength of his own army. Therefore, he must find a way to show that he is deploying forces to fight for President Putin, while trying to keep his most experienced fighters alive," said Aslan.

While the Chechen forces have faded, Wagner’s role has come into sharper focus since September last year, when Russian military units were forced to retreat in the face of a Ukrainian counterattack. Kadyrov had expressed sympathy for Prigozhin when the Wagner leader criticized some Russian military officials, accusing them of not providing ammunition. But the relationship between the two men has been tense at times, with criticism and retaliation, especially when Prigozhin said Chechen forces could not fully control Donetsk.

For now, the Chechen forces will likely focus on proving their mettle wrong. While it remains unclear what their frontline capabilities will be, it is clear that they will work better with regular Russian forces than Wagner. Kadyrov’s forces signed a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry in mid-June, after Moscow asked all units to volunteer by July 1.

On June 24, as the Wagner rebellion unfolded, Kadyrov took to Telegram to denounce Wagner’s “cowardly betrayal” and stress his loyalty to Putin. “I have repeatedly warned that war is not the time to voice personal grievances. We have a president who understands the situation better than any strategist,” he said.

Thanh Tam (According to FT )

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