The Korea Times recently published an article titled “Surge in Export Growth Raises Hopes of Korea Surpassing Japan” quoting experts as saying that Korea’s exports are growing at a faster pace with less than three months left until the end of 2024.
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| Even if South Korea fails to surpass Japan in exports this year, a growing number of statistics show that Seoul is economically more capable than Tokyo. (Source: Yonhap) |
According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea, South Korea's exports in the first nine months of 2024 reached $508.8 billion, becoming the second highest total export value in the country's history. In the period from June to September 2024, the export volume increased 10.7% compared to the same period last year, reaching $173.9 billion. This is also the second highest export figure in the third quarter of any year in the history of South Korea.
Exports in September 2024 jumped 7.5% year-on-year, continuing the growth streak for the 12th consecutive month. As a result, South Korea's exports hit a record high in a single month, totaling $58.77 billion. In addition, the average daily export value in September also hit a record high of $2.94 billion.
Japan's annual exports have exceeded $700 billion for the past three years, according to an official at South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, who requested anonymity. South Korea aims to surpass Japan in annual exports of more than $700 billion in the coming years.
Even if South Korea fails to surpass Japan in exports this year, there are more and more statistics showing that the country has better economic capacity than Japan, the official said. For example, data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) in June this year showed that South Korea's GNI per capita reached $36,194 in 2023, surpassing Japan's $35,793.
Also released in June this year, the International Institute for Management Development (IMD) in Lausanne, Switzerland, ranked South Korea 20th in its 2024 national competitiveness assessment, up from 28th in 2023. Japan, by contrast, came in at 38th. Notably, South Korea is second only to the United States among the “30-50 Club” countries, with a per capita income of $30,000 and a population of more than 50 million. The United States ranked 12th.
In its 2024 forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts South Korea's per capita GDP to reach $34,165, surpassing Japan's forecast of $33,138. The report also forecasts South Korea's real GDP growth to reach 2.5 percent in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025, surpassing Japan's estimated growth of 0.7 percent and 1.2 percent.
Speaking at a question-and-answer session of the South Korean National Assembly last month, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choi Sang Mok said that although Japan surpasses South Korea in every macroeconomic indicator, South Korea has stronger microeconomic indicators than Japan.
The above figures have led some economists to predict that this year South Korea could surpass Japan in export volume for the first time in history.
Assessing whether South Korea can become a bigger exporter than Japan this year, Professor Kang In Won, an expert on international business and trade at Kyung Hee University, said it will depend on maintaining growth momentum in the final quarter of this year as Japan is also accelerating its exports.
Japan, after narrowing its export gap with South Korea to its lowest level in the first six months of the year, widened the gap again in the following two months, according to Professor Kang In Won. Japan reported exports of $472.3 billion from January to August this year, compared with $450.1 billion for South Korea in the same period.
Meanwhile, Professor Cho Hyuk Soo, an international trade expert at Chungnam National University, said all the data is certainly compelling enough to attract public interest in whether South Korea can surpass Japan in exports.
Notably, South Korea narrowed its export gap with Japan to a record low of $3.5 billion in the first half of 2024. At that time, South Korea's exports increased 9% year-on-year to $334.8 billion, while Japan's exports fell 3.6% to $338.3 billion.
Such a narrowing gap is significant, Professor Cho Hyuk Soo stressed, considering that South Korea used to be one of the poorest exporting countries compared to Japan, which once boasted the world's second-largest economy after the United States.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/han-quoc-lan-dau-tien-vuot-nhat-ban-trong-linh-vuc-nay-289950.html
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