Gold price "gradually weakens", market retreats before Trump's policy, experts predict the next path?

Báo Quốc TếBáo Quốc Tế15/11/2024

Gold price today November 16, 2024: World gold prices were pushed below the mid-term support zone, the uptrend has been broken and it may take some time for macroeconomic factors to rekindle a new increase. Domestic gold prices "bounced back" after many disastrous sessions, but the difference between buying and selling prices may put investors at risk of losses?


1. PNJ - Updated: 11/15/2024 22:30 - Time of website supply - / Compared to yesterday.
Type Buy Sell
HCMC - PNJ 80,000 81,900
HCMC - SJC 80,000 83,500
Hanoi - PNJ 80,000 81,900
Hanoi - SJC 80,000 83,500
Da Nang - PNJ 80,000 81,900
Da Nang - SJC 80,000 83,500
Western Region - PNJ 80,000 81,900
Western Region - SJC 80,000 83,500
Jewelry gold price - PNJ 80,000 81,900
Jewelry gold price - SJC 80,000 83,500
Jewelry gold price - Southeast PNJ 80,000
Jewelry gold price - SJC 80,000 83,500
Jewelry gold price - Jewelry gold price PNJ 999.9 Plain Ring 80,000
Jewelry gold price - Jewelry gold 999.9 79,900 80,700
Jewelry gold price - Jewelry gold 999 79,820 80,620
Jewelry gold price - Jewelry gold 99 78,990 79,990
Jewelry gold price - 916 gold (22K) 73,520 74,020
Jewelry gold price - 750 gold (18K) 59,280 60,680
Jewelry gold price - 680 gold (16.3K) 53,630 55,030
Jewelry gold price - 650 gold (15.6K) 51,210 52,610
Jewelry gold price - 610 gold (14.6K) 47,980 49,380
Jewelry gold price - 585 gold (14K) 45,960 47,360
Jewelry gold price - 416 gold (10K) 32,320 33,720
Jewelry gold price - 375 gold (9K) 29,010 30,410
Jewelry gold price - 333 gold (8K) 25,380 26,780

Update gold price today 11/16/2024

World gold prices weakened at least in the medium term, when they were pushed below the important medium-term support zone of $2,600.

Gold prices recovered in the final session of the week, but still fluctuated below $2,600/ounce. Gold prices remained under pressure due to the USD at a seven-month high and the US Treasury yield rose sharply after the US Labor Department reported that the US economy's consumer prices increased in October.

Recorded by World & Vietnam Newspaper , at 19:09 On November 15 (Hanoi time), the world gold price listed on the Kitco electronic floor was at 2,569.10 - 2,570.10 USD/ounce , an increase of 4.40 USD/ounce compared to the previous trading session.

Gold has had a stellar year, hitting a record high of $2,790 an ounce on October 30, up more than 40% from its February low, but according to senior market analyst Kelvin Wong at OANDA , the medium-term uptrend has been broken and it may take some time for macroeconomic factors to reignite the yellow metal's rally.

The recent gold rally has stalled at a key mid-term resistance level of $2,850. At the same time, the rally in the Trump Trade saw risk assets surge, while gold plunged, the strong US dollar and rising 10-year Treasury yields emerged as strong headwinds to gold's rally.

Following the US presidential election results on November 6, market participants continued to focus on the Trump Trade, triggering a significant rally in the USD against major and emerging currencies. The USD Index surged, breaking through the key resistance zone of 105.50/106.37 and hitting a yearly high on November 13. In total, the USD has increased by 7% from its low on September 27.

Analyst Kelvin Wong said the current persistent strength of the US dollar is mainly due to the rapid rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield despite the US Federal Reserve (Fed) just starting its rate-cutting cycle. He said, "The pressure from the rising US dollar and bond yields could continue to impact gold demand in the near term, the possibility of a pause in rate cuts could overshadow gold with higher yield opportunities."

According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are expecting a 79.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at its December 18 meeting and 20.9% think it will keep interest rates unchanged at the current time.

Domestic gold prices have increased again after many consecutive sharp declines.

Experts say the current high difference between buying and selling prices puts investors at risk of losing money in short-term investments.

The price of SJC gold bars at Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) and 4 banks in the Big4 group (Vietcombank, BIDV, Agribank, VietinBank) continues to be kept at a stable price of 80 - 83.5 million VND/tael (buy-sell). The buy-sell difference continues to be very high at 3.5 million VND.

The price of 9999 round smooth gold rings suddenly increased again to 1.2 million VND per tael.

Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) increased the listed price of type 1-5 by 300,000 VND to only 79.3-81.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell); DOJI Group adjusted the price up by 1.2 million VND for buying, to 81-82.7 million VND/tael; At PNJ, the price of gold rings is 80-81.9 million VND/tael; Bao Tin Minh Chau listed the price of gold rings at 80.78-82.68 million VND/tael, an increase of about 660 thousand VND for buying.

Giá vàng hôm nay 16/11/2024: Giá vàng đang 'suy yếu dần', thị trường lùi bước trước chính sách của ông Trump, chuyên gia dự đoán con đường tiếp theo?
Gold price today November 16, 2024: Gold price is 'gradually weakening', the market is retreating before Mr. Trump's policy, experts predict the next path? (Source: Kitco)

Summary of SJC gold bar prices and plain round gold ring prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of the trading session on November 15:

Saigon Jewelry Company SJC: SJC gold bars 80 - 83.5 million VND/tael; SJC gold rings 79.3 - 81.8 million VND/tael.

Doji Group: SJC gold bars 80 - 83.5 million VND/tael; 9999 round rings (Hung Thinh Vuong) 81-82.7 million VND/tael.

PNJ system: SJC gold bars 80 - 83.5 million VND/tael; PNJ 999.9 plain gold rings at 80 - 81.9 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at 80 - 83.5 million VND/tael; plain gold rings are traded at 80.78 - 82.68 million VND/tael.

The medium-term gold uptrend has been broken.

Investors’ attention is focused on gold prices, which are influenced by important US economic data and expectations of changes in the Fed’s monetary policy. The dynamic price action of gold is being seen in the market due to the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the changing political landscape under President-elect Donald Trump and the continued uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s decisions.

Investors are holding their breath as they await Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, but many believe he will not reveal any new plans. In light of the latest CPI figures, he is expected to reaffirm the Fed’s ongoing stance that the fight against inflation is not over. If Powell maintains his cautious stance, the Fed will not be able to cut rates quickly enough to devalue the currency, which could limit gold’s potential in the short term.

Gold prices broke below the key medium-term support zone of $2,600/$2,590 on November 13. Earlier this week (November 11), prices fell below the 50-day moving average, which has been holding the price action for the past four months, since July 3, indicating that the medium-term uptrend has been broken. Analyst Kelvin Wong said, "The break below $2,590/oz suggests further weakness in gold.

As for how far gold prices could slide, Wong stressed that “The next support zone to watch would be $2,484/$2,415 (which coincides with the key 200-day moving average) and only a clear break below the key support at $2,285 could threaten gold’s main uptrend that has extended from the October 2022 low.

Meanwhile, for the bullish trend to be re-established, the key mid-term resistance level is $2,664. If gold can break above this level, “it could trigger a revival of the bullish streak towards the $2,850/$2,886 resistance zone.”

OANDA market analyst Zain Vawda also predicted that as the US enters a new presidential term, the Fed may pause its easing cycle if inflation spikes after the new round of tariffs. Therefore, in the short term, gold prices are likely to recover slightly, but then fall again.

With a more neutral view, Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco , predicts that gold will recover to $2,700/ounce in the near future; in case it cannot recover, the precious metal can stand firm at $2,500/ounce.

"Powell's comments could limit gold's upside going into the new year, but a volatile Trump presidency could also boost safe-haven flows into gold," said Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index .



Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-vang-hom-nay-16112024-gia-vang-suy-yeu-dan-thi-truong-lui-buoc-truoc-chinh-sach-cua-ong-trump-chuyen-gia-du-doan-duong-di-tiep-theo-293830.html

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