Robusta coffee prices hit a new record, domestic prices continue to increase, will they increase further?

In the coming time, the possibility of further increase in coffee prices will not be high because this record price has reached the threshold. In addition, there is currently a conflict in the Red Sea, causing shipping costs to increase. With current coffee prices combined with new shipping costs, the gap is high compared to the purchase plans of roasters, according to experts' analysis.

World coffee prices have just experienced a strong increase, in the past week, robusta prices increased by 141 USD (4.51%), while arabica increased by 8.70 Cents (4.70%0) in the March delivery period.

Domestic coffee prices continue to increase well, currently trading in the range of 76,500 - 77,100 VND/kg as shortages continue to push domestic coffee prices up.

At the end of last week's trading session (January 27), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased, with the delivery date for March 2024 increasing by 18 USD, trading at 3,269 USD/ton. The delivery date for May 2024 increased by 27 USD, trading at 3,112 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the March 2024 delivery period increasing by 6.9 cents, trading at 193.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2024 delivery period increased by 5.75 cents, trading at 189.45 cents/lb. The average trading volume is high.

Domestic coffee prices last weekend (January 28) increased by 400 - 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: https: doanhnhan.biz/)

Thus, every week the price of robusta coffee sets a new record. In less than a month of 2024, the London floor has increased by 13%.

Data released by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE) shows that Brazil's green coffee exports in the first five months of the 2023-2024 crop year (July to November 2023) increased by 18.7% compared to the same period in the 2022-2023 crop year to 17.3 million bags. Of which, robusta exports jumped 420.9% to 3.4 million bags; Arabica coffee remained unchanged at 13.97 million bags.

Robusta coffee inventories certified and monitored by the London Exchange, as of January 26, increased by 70 tons, or a slight increase of 0.23% compared to a week earlier, to a registered level of 30,080 tons (about 501,333 bags, 60 kg bags), a 15-year low, mainly Conilon coffee from Brazil.

Domestic coffee prices last weekend (January 28) increased by 400 - 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,400	0
DAK LAK	77,100	+ 500
LAM DONG	76,500	+ 400
GIA LAI	76,600	+ 400
DAK NONG	76,900	+ 500

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

According to experts, coffee prices from Vietnam are rising because the shipping routes to Europe via the Suez and Panama Canals are congested. The need to take detours or delays cause freight rates to rise, which in turn causes coffee prices to rise.

The delay also caused inventories in Europe to drop significantly, so prices continued to rise despite the London market repeatedly entering overbought territory.

In the country, coffee is in short supply due to the previous crop. Some output is in short supply so they have to wait until the new crop to export. In addition, exporters are afraid of shortages like last year so they will buy more to stockpile. This helps coffee prices increase as in the past.

Meanwhile, in 2023-24, Brazil's coffee production is forecast to increase by 3.7 million bags to 66.3 million bags. This is mainly due to a 5.1 million bag increase in Arabica production to 44.9 million bags.

Arabica coffee trees in many Brazilian producing regions continue to recover from severe frosts, high temperatures and below-average rainfall in 2021 that reduced coffee production in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 crop years.

However, Brazil’s arabica output is still significantly lower than the peak of nearly 50 million bags in previous bumper years. On the other hand, Brazil’s robusta output is forecast to decline for the first time after six consecutive years of growth, down 1.4 million bags to 21.4 million.

Green coffee exports from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, are forecast to recover and increase by 7.3 million bags from the previous season to 39.5 million bags, boosted by higher supplies and increased import demand from the US and EU.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2912024-gia-ca-phe-robusta-lai-lap-ky-luc-trong-nuoc-tiep-tuc-tang-con-tang-nua-259137.html