| Coffee price forecast June 20, 2024: Will domestic coffee prices "slip"? Coffee price forecast June 21, 2024: Will coffee prices continue to stay high? |
Coffee prices are forecast to continue rising sharply on June 22, 2024 in the domestic market. Hot and dry weather in Vietnam has also raised concerns about the next harvest in the world's largest exporter of Robusta coffee, which supplies the type of coffee used in instant coffee. Vietnam is expected to have scattered showers in the coming period, indicating that rainfall so far in June has been too little, Maxar reported.
Vietnam’s coffee supply is running out while the outlook for the next crop is not very optimistic. The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) recently predicted that coffee prices will increase again, mainly due to investors’ increasing concerns about the supply prospects from Vietnam.
Hedge funds have increased their net buying positions in anticipation that Robusta supply from Vietnam will continue to be scarce in the coming time.
Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is estimated at 24 million bags, the lowest level in 13 years, due to unfavorable weather, according to Volcafe, a trading house.
According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Affairs Office (USDA Post), Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is forecast to be around 29 million bags (60 kg/bag), down slightly from the estimated 29.1 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year. Of which, robusta coffee output will reach 27.85 million bags, down from 28 million bags in the previous crop year. Meanwhile, arabica output will increase slightly to 1.15 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee production estimate for 2023-24 has been revised up 6% from the previous forecast to 29.1 million bags. Higher coffee prices in 2023-24 will encourage farmers to invest more in production to reduce losses in harvests and other inputs.
Instead of switching completely to other crops, coffee farmers are now using intercropping to diversify and increase their revenue. The USDA Post believes that the total coffee acreage in Vietnam will remain stable at around 600,000 hectares for the next few years. Farmers can earn twice as much from growing durian as from growing coffee. However, rising coffee prices have helped stabilize coffee acreage and it remains an important crop in highland provinces such as Lam Dong and Dak Lak.
Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on June 21, 2024 as follows, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices today are in the range of 120,000-121,000 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,100 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 121,200 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,000 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 120,900 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province the price is 121,000 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 121,200 VND/kg.
The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 120,000 VND/kg.
Coffee prices today (June 21) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 121,000 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 120,900 VND/kg.
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| London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for July 2024 delivery on the London floor was at 4,341 USD/ton, down 33 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for September 2024 was 4,159 USD/ton, down 17 USD; the delivery term for November 2024 was 3,998 USD/ton, down 3 USD and the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,856 USD/ton, up 17 USD.
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| New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on June 21, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 222.95 - 229.20 cents/lb.
Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 229.20 cents/lb; down 71.15 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 226.95 cents/lb, down 160 cents/lb; the March 2024 delivery period is 225.15 cents/lb, down 1.85 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 222.95 cents/lb, down 2.05 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:30 on June 21, 2024 fluctuated in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for July 2024 was 289.15 USD/ton, up 5.25%; the delivery period for September 2024 was 280.40 USD/ton (down 0.20%); the delivery period for December 2024 was 276.50 USD/ton (down 0.75%) and the delivery period for March 2025 was 276.15 USD/ton, up 4.35%.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.
Currently, it is the time when countries in the Southern Hemisphere harvest coffee (from May to September every year). Meanwhile, Vietnam, located in the Northern Hemisphere, has finished its harvest season from October of the previous year to the end of May of the following year.
Global analysts predict that the price of this agricultural product will temporarily stop increasing and tend to decrease due to the high harvest output in Brazil. However, some forecasts suggest that coffee prices will continue to increase in the fourth quarter of 2024, when Brazil finishes its harvest and Vietnam enters a new harvest.
According to Volcafe, Vietnam's Robusta output in the 2024-2025 crop year is estimated at 24 million bags, the lowest level in the past 13 years, due to unfavorable weather. This information is the information that caused Robusta prices on the London floor to increase sharply in the middle of this week.
Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.
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