Latest forecast on year-end deposit interest rates

(NLDO) – Savings interest rates are expected to continue to increase as banks increase capital mobilization for lending.

Statistics from the Vietnam Banking Association (VNBA) over the past month show that 18 commercial banks increased interest rates; 6 banks decreased interest rates and the surprising development is that 3 banks both increased and decreased interest rates for some terms.

The strongest increase is SeABank with 0.85% for 6-month term when customers deposit savings at the counter to 4.6%/year; 0.79% for 9-month term to 4.74%/year, 0.65% for 3-month term to 4.1%/year. Currently, the highest rate at this bank is 5.75%/year for 24-36-month term at the counter, with the form of term deposit with interest paid at the end of the term.

Agribank has also recorded an increase in interest rates in the past month by 0.5 percentage points for 1-9 month terms deposited at the counter to 2.2%-3.5%/year. Currently, the highest rate at this bank is 4.8%/year for 24 month terms at the counter.

Deposit interest rates are expected to increase at the end of the year.

At many other banks, interest rates have increased slightly by 0.1-0.3 percentage points per year when customers deposit at the counter and online. Statistics from VNBA show that there are 6 banks that have slightly reduced interest rates by only 0.1% per year for some terms, at the counter and online, including: BacABank, Indovina, BaoVietBank, NCB, Nam A Bank, ABBank.

There are 3 banks that simultaneously increase and decrease interest rates in some terms including: Indovina, BaoVietBank and NCB.

Commenting on the interest rate trend from now until the end of the year, Mr. Nguyen Hung, General Director of TPBank, said that interest rates will increase mainly in the short term due to pressure partly from the rising USD/VND exchange rate. It is forecasted that in early 2025, interest rates will remain at a lower level when the US and many central banks of other countries lower interest rates. The pressure to increase interest rates in the coming time is not too high, mainly in the short term.

In the latest currency market update report, experts from MBS Securities Company said that after about 2 months of stagnation, deposit interest rates began to increase again in November with 16 banks, including large banks such as Agribank, Techcombank and MB, increasing savings interest rates by 0.1 to 0.7 percentage points.

"This upward trend is expected to continue until the end of this year in the context of credit growth increasing nearly twice as fast as capital mobilization growth. The recovery of credit growth in the context of production and investment accelerating more strongly at the end of the year will partly put pressure on system liquidity and may lead to an increase in input interest rates," said Ms. Tran Khanh Hien, Director of MBS Securities Analysis.

Based on the above factors, it is forecasted that 12-month deposit interest rates of major commercial banks may increase by 0.2 percentage points, fluctuating around 5.1%-5.2% by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy, VNDIRECT Securities Company, said that increased credit demand has put pressure on deposit interest rates. As of November 28, the average 12-month deposit interest rate has increased slightly by 0.02 percentage points compared to the previous month, to 4.83%/year. The average 12-month deposit interest rate is forecast to be at 4.9%-5% by the end of this year.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/lai-suat-hom-nay-11-12-du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-lai-suat-tien-gui-cuoi-nam-196241211162404269.htm