The plane suspected of carrying Wagner spun, spewed white smoke and broke into pieces before crashing, suggesting an explosion may have occurred on board.
Video posted by Russian news agency RIA Novosti shows an Embraer Legacy 600 jet falling almost freely through the sky, with a plume of white smoke billowing out of the sky. The person filming zooms in on the plane spinning out of control, revealing that one of its wings has broken off.
These were the final moments of the plane believed to be carrying Wagner private military conglomerate tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin, before it crashed into a field near the village of Kuzhenkino in Tver province, northwest of Moscow, and burst into flames.
An Embraer Legacy plane crashed in Tver province, western Russia, on August 23. Video: Telegram/RVvoenkor
In addition to Prigozhin, the passenger list released by the Russian Civil Aviation Administration (Rosaviatsia) also included the names of Wagner's top associates, such as deputy Dmitry Utkin. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations said all 10 people on board the flight were killed.
Rosaviatsia said it had opened an investigation into the cause of the crash. Russia’s Investigative Committee has also opened a criminal case for violating aviation safety regulations, but no agency has yet confirmed that Wagner was killed. However, in a televised address on August 24 about the crash, President Vladimir Putin referred to Prigozhin in the past tense.
The Pentagon said on August 24 that Mr Prigozhin “probably” died in the crash, which US and Western intelligence officials believe was intentional. Officials said it was too early to determine the cause of the crash, but there were signs that an explosion may have occurred on board.
Experts say all evidence so far suggests there is no possibility of a technical fault. The Embraer Legacy 600 has an excellent safety record and has not had a fatal accident since it entered service.
Data from Flightradar24, a website that tracks flight information in real time, shows that the plane, flight number RA-02795, took off from Moscow airport at 6 p.m. on August 23. About 11 minutes later, the plane reached an altitude of more than 8,500 meters and was traveling at a speed of about 950 km/h.
The plane continued its journey normally, heading to St. Petersburg. At 6:19 p.m., the Embraer Legacy 600 suddenly increased its altitude, at one point reaching more than 9,100 meters, before suddenly losing nearly 2,500 meters in just 30 seconds.
The final data retrieved from the plane showed it descending to an altitude of more than 6,000 meters. According to CNN 's analysis of the flight data, RA-02795 flew another 48 kilometers before crashing near the village of Kuzhenkino.
Scattered debris of the plane at the scene. Graphics: CNN
Experts say the way the plane changed altitude so suddenly is a very unusual sign and the pilot seemed to have tried to control the plane before the crash.
"Something very unusual has happened that could have caused a sudden decompression, like a door blowing off or an explosion right under the landing gear bay. The pilot then has to find a way to control the plane enough to maintain altitude and not let it drop like a rock," said Steffan Watkins, a researcher who specializes in tracking aircraft and ships.
RA-02795 is the plane that is believed to have carried Prigozhin to Belarus after the agreement to end the Wagner group's rebellion in late June. Over the past two months, Russian observers and aviation experts have tracked the plane back and forth between Belarus and Russia and have noticed that it often turned off its navigation system to hide its location.
A video of the crash scene shared by the Belarusian Project Hajun group on Telegram shows four numbers on the fuselage identified as 2795.
Videos and photos posted on Telegram showed debris scattered across four locations over a 3-kilometer radius around the village of Kuzhenkino. The fuselage was in a field, and the tail was found nearby. Some smaller pieces of debris fell into residential areas, and the plane's wing was found in a small river that runs through the village.
Markus Schiller, a European missile expert who has worked for NATO and the European Union (EU), said the debris scattered over a large area suggested the plane had experienced a "strong explosion" in mid-air.
The plane caught fire near the village of Kuzhenkino in Tver province on August 23. RIA Novosti
"The tail and wings of the plane could only have been separated from the main body after an explosion. It is not clear whether this was caused by a bomb on the plane or a missile, but these two parts could not have broken off for any other reason," Schiller said.
Robert Schmucker, a missile expert who advises NATO and the United Nations, said the cause of the crash could only be determined after a thorough investigation and analysis of both the black boxes and the wreckage, but the available evidence suggests the plane crashed due to an explosion, not a technical failure.
"Maintenance errors or pilot error could not have caused the wing to come off. It appears to have been a mid-air explosion. This aircraft certainly did not crash due to mechanical failure or weather," Schmucker said.
The expert added that based on the video and debris, it was unlikely the plane was hit by a rocket or anti-aircraft missile.
Some residents living near the scene said they heard explosions before the plane crashed. A woman in Kuzhenkino said she heard the plane near her home, where the tail section was found.
"Then there was something like a gunshot. Then there was a bigger bang. I looked up and saw the plane start spinning, there was a trail of smoke and it went down," the woman said.
The plane crash site in the village of Kuzhenkino in Russia's Tver province. Graphics: BBC
Daniel Kwasi Adjekum, an aviation expert and lecturer at the University of North Dakota, pointed out three possibilities for the cause of the accident: being planted with explosives, being hit by a missile or having a mid-air collision.
However, he assessed the latter two possibilities as very unlikely, because if hit by an anti-aircraft missile, the plane would be destroyed to a much greater extent. Collisions with other aircraft are also easily detected on radar unless it is a drone. However, drones have difficulty reaching an altitude of nearly 9,000 meters.
"It is difficult to understand what happened without a thorough investigation. But what can be confirmed is that the plane suffered a serious catastrophic failure, causing it to break into many pieces while flying," he said.
Thanh Tam (According to CNN )
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