Warnings, speculations and scenarios

Russia has repeatedly warned of a “red line.” Some fear a nuclear disaster, but others say it is a “verbal threat”!

From Russia's point of view, the nuclear triad remains the most important guarantee of national and people's security; it is a tool for maintaining the strategic balance and power in the world.

Russia's Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system takes part in the Victory Day parade in Moscow in 2022. (Source: Reuters)

Stronger than ever

Russia’s 2020 nuclear doctrine stipulates four cases in which nuclear weapons may be used. One, when there is “reliable information” that the enemy is launching ballistic missiles against Russia and its allies. Two , the enemy is using nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction against Russia and its allies. Three, the enemy attacks “important state or military facilities” that could disrupt the response capabilities of nuclear forces. Four, the enemy attacks with conventional weapons that could threaten Russia’s national existence.

On September 25, at a meeting of the National Security Council, President Vladimir Putin said that the world's political and military situation is changing dramatically, with new threats emerging, so it is necessary to adjust and update the Nuclear Doctrine.

The new proposal highlights three key points about the circumstances/thresholds under which Russia could respond with nuclear weapons. First, when any country launches a large-scale air attack on Russian territory using conventional weapons, threatening Russian sovereignty. Second, an action against Russia by “any non-nuclear state, with the participation and support of a nuclear state” is an attack on “their common alliance”. Moscow would respond to both. Third, the expanded circumstances apply to ally Belarus.

It can be seen that the threshold for using nuclear weapons is lowered, which means the threat and possibility of nuclear war is increased. That is an unprecedented strong warning from Russia.

“Nuclear blackmail”?

The West was both “restless” and did not properly assess the danger of the situation. Some leaders said it was just “verbal threats”! Moscow was “playing psychological games”! US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared it an “irresponsible and ill-timed warning”.

The Chief of Staff of the President of Ukraine, Andrey Yemark, acknowledged that this move shows Russia's weakness! The basis for these views is that Moscow did not respond when the "red line" was crossed several times and they did not see Russia preparing to use nuclear weapons and would be firmly captured by NATO reconnaissance means.

On the other hand, some Western politicians and experts expressed concern. American military commentator Earl Rasmussen said that Russia was very serious and ignoring Moscow's warning "would be a serious mistake".

According to some experts, NATO and the West have not yet violated the two most "taboo" rules: agreeing to let Kiev widely use long-range missiles and the most modern weapons to attack deep into Russian territory and not sending troops directly to fight in Ukraine.

What will happen?

The declaration on the use of nuclear weapons clearly states the condition of having “reliable information” about the enemy’s attack. The danger is that the decision to press the nuclear button by the parties is based not only on the system of complete and accurate data but also on the warnings and subjective speculations of some stages in the whole system.

The miscalculation and strategic decisions of the leaders of nuclear powers are extremely dangerous for themselves and for humanity. Returning to the conflict in Ukraine, although Russia really does not want to use nuclear weapons and considers it a difficult decision, the worst scenario cannot be completely ruled out.

One, NATO and the West support and aid Ukraine in launching a large-scale air attack on Russian territory, or in occupying Crimea. Two, the situation is in danger of collapse, NATO and the West pour modern weapons into Ukraine and directly send troops to the rescue. Three, the situation on the battlefield turns unfavorable to Moscow; NATO and the West continue to act provocatively towards Russia.

If Russia decides to use nuclear weapons, even on a tactical scale, it could lead to NATO and the West responding with tactical nuclear weapons and increasing their forces to close in and encircle Russia, leading to the risk of nuclear war breaking out. If either side launches a preemptive nuclear strike, it could lead to an all-out nuclear war, and World War III.

Nuclear war, in any form or scale, has extremely catastrophic consequences. In the event of a total nuclear war, many areas of the planet would be wiped out, nuclear clouds would cover most of the sky; the millennium goals, decisions at the Future Summit, and the 79th United Nations General Assembly would become a thing of the past…

Even if no nuclear scenario occurs, the nuclear arms race will still flare up fiercely. Countries that possess and are capable of possessing nuclear weapons will speed up, increasing the number of tests and weapons in their nuclear arsenals... Other countries will be busy seeking the nuclear umbrella of the great powers.

Therefore, the international community, especially the people of nuclear powers, must strongly urge the government to implement conventions, agreements, and protocols on the prohibition of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear-weapon-free zones, etc. Promote the role of the United Nations, propose mechanisms and initiatives to prevent the development, production, storage, and use of weapons of mass destruction.

Governments of countries, especially major countries, need to truly comply with the principles of the United Nations Charter and international law, not use force or threaten to use force in international relations; resolve conflicts and disputes by peaceful, reasonable and emotional means, based on international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/tham-hoa-vu-khi-hat-nhan-canh-bao-suy-doan-va-kich-ban-288589.html