The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has just announced some key results of the survey on business trends of credit institutions (CIs) in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The survey was conducted from May 25, 2024 to June 11, 2024. The subjects were all credit institutions and State Bank branches in Vietnam, with a response rate of 96%.
Deposit interest rates will increase slightly, lending interest rates will decrease
The survey results show that the demand for using the service bank Customer demand (deposit demand, payment service usage, card and payment demand) is expected by credit institutions to only recover slightly in the second quarter of 2024, much lower than expected.
In particular, the demand for deposits, payment services and cards is considered to have "improved" more than the demand for loans in the same period. At the end of the second quarter of 2024, the demand for loans of business is considered to have higher loan demand from individual customers and other credit institutions.
Credit institutions forecast that customers' demand for banking services may "improve" better in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2024 and in 2024 compared to 2023 when the economy recovers. economy There are many positive developments and recoveries, in which the demand for loans is expected to "improve" more than the demand for deposits and payments.
According to the assessment of credit institutions, the liquidity of the banking system in the second quarter of 2024 remained in a "good" state, with improvements, almost reaching the forecast level in the previous period. Credit institutions forecast that the liquidity situation will continue to improve in the third quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024 compared to 2023.
The survey results show that many credit institutions have or plan to slightly increase deposit interest rates. In general, in 2024, they still plan to slightly reduce deposit interest rates compared to the end of last year, while credit institutions continue to plan to reduce lending interest rates to support people and businesses in accessing credit. invest expand production and business
According to the survey results of this period, in the first 2 months of the second quarter of 2024, credit institutions said that they continued to adjust the average price of products and services down, but with a narrowing trend. In particular, credit institutions said that they adjusted the marginal interest rate down more than the service fee. The average price of products and services is expected to remain stable by credit institutions in the third quarter of 2024, the whole year of 2024, and is forecast to increase slightly again in 2025.
As predicted in the previous survey, the overall risk level (MBRR) of customer groups was assessed by credit institutions to continue to "increase" in the second quarter of 2024 and is forecast to continue the "slightly increasing" trend in the third quarter of 2024. Assessing the overall year of 2024, credit institutions forecast that the overall MBRR of customer groups will continue to increase slightly, but the rate of increase in MBRR has slowed down significantly compared to 2023.
In particular, the risk of customer groups that are credit institutions is assessed to increase slightly in the second quarter of 2024. In general, in 2024, the MBRR of this group is expected to remain unchanged compared to 2023. Capital mobilization of the whole system is expected to increase by an average of 3.3% in the third quarter of 2024 and increase by 10.1% in 2024, adjusted higher than the forecast of 9.9% recorded in the previous survey.
Full-year credit growth of 13.6%, expected profit increase in 2024
Outstanding credit balance of the entire system is expected to increase by an average of 3.7% in the third quarter of 2024 and by 14.1% in 2024, an increase of 0.47% compared to the forecast of 13.6% in the previous survey. Credit institutions said that the ratio of bad debt/outstanding credit balance continued to show signs of a "slight increase" in the second quarter of 2024, not meeting the expectation of a "slight decrease" as in the first quarter of 2024. However, credit institutions expect the bad debt ratio to decrease in the third quarter of 2024.
According to the survey results, the overall business situation and pre-tax profit of the banking system in the second quarter of 2024 have improved but not really clearly compared to the first quarter of 2024 and have not met the expectations of credit institutions in the previous survey. 70-75.5% of credit institutions expect the business situation to be more positive in the third quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024.
In 2024, 86.2% of credit institutions expect pre-tax profit to grow positively compared to 2023, while 11% of credit institutions are still concerned about negative profit growth in 2024 (higher than the rate of 10.1% of credit institutions expected in the previous survey) and 2.8% estimate that profit will remain unchanged.
In the second quarter of 2024, credit institutions assessed that internal factors continued to improve compared to the previous quarter, and are expected to continue to improve throughout 2024. In particular, the factors "Interest rate, credit, exchange rate policies of the unit" and "Customer care policies and services of the unit" continued to be assessed by the majority of credit institutions as the two most important factors positively affecting the business situation of the unit in the second quarter and expected for the whole year of 2024.
However, 5.6% of credit institutions are still concerned about the overall internal factors that will "degrade" the business situation of the unit in 2024, mainly due to the factor "Capacity" finance of the unit" along with "The unit's ability to innovate and improve products". The credit institutions assessed "The demand of the economy for the unit's products and services" as the most important objective factor helping to "improve" the business situation of the credit institution in the second quarter of 2024.
But for the whole year of 2024, "The State Bank's credit, interest rate and exchange rate policies" are expected to be the most important objective factor to help "improve" the business situation of credit institutions, followed by "Customer business and financial conditions" and "Economic demand for the unit's products and services".
Meanwhile, "Competition from other credit institutions" continues to be assessed as the most important factor negatively affecting the "deterioration" of credit institutions' business situation in the second quarter of 2024 and expected for the whole year of 2024.
According to the assessment of credit institutions, the labor and employment situation of the banking and finance sector developed positively in the second quarter of 2024 and is expected to continue to be positive in the third quarter of 2024 as well as the whole year of 2024.
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