Bounce back towards 125,000 VND/kg?

Coffee prices are forecasted to increase slightly on July 2, 2024 in the domestic market. Overall, coffee prices have been increasing well since the beginning of the year, which is a good sign ahead of this year's harvest, making people very excited.

According to assessments from many recorded sources, currently in major coffee growing areas of our country, drought and pests have severely affected the productivity of this crop.

Coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tons. This is the lowest level in 4 years, putting pressure on the supply of Robusta coffee in the world market. The Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association expects coffee exports in 2024 to earn about 4.5 - 5 billion USD.

In the domestic market, today's coffee price was updated at 4:30 a.m. on July 1, 2024 as follows: Today's domestic coffee price is stable at around 118,200-119,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 119,200 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 119,300 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 119,200 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 119,200 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province the price is 119,200 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 119,300 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 118,200 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today (July 1) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 119,200 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 119,200 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Updated world coffee prices at 20:30 on July 1, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 3,995 USD/ton, down 16 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 3,824 USD/ton, down 26 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,650 USD/ton, down 30 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,537 USD/ton, down 51 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on July 1, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 214.90 - 220.75 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 214.90 cents/lb; up 6.05 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 218.55 cents/lb, down 5.95 cents/lb; the March 2024 delivery period is 216.85 cents/lb, down 6 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 214.90 cents/lb, up 6.05 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:30 on July 1, 2024 fluctuated in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for July 2024 was 287.45 USD/ton, up 0.33%; the delivery period for September 2024 was 279.00 USD/ton (up 0.79%); the delivery period for December 2024 was 272.15 USD/ton (down 0.20%) and the delivery period for March 2025 was 270.65 USD/ton, up 0.35%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

Coffee industry expert Nguyen Quang Binh warned participants in the coffee market, especially farmers, not to be complacent about the “bad harvest, good price” mentality in the context of rival countries taking a series of actions to boost exports. This could cause world coffee prices to cool down, affecting prices in the domestic market.

Brazil is rushing to sell its products thanks to the local currency Real (BRL) falling to its lowest level in 18 months against the USD. The cheaper the local currency, the greater the income of growers based on the country's production. At the same time, Indonesia is entering the new crop season. India and Uganda are always ready to accept world prices because they believe that the futures floor is anchoring prices at a high level, Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh analyzed.

Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh warned: “Although the Robusta import market cannot abandon coffee from Vietnam because it has been used in roasting batches for decades. However, we need to be wary of the battle for market share from competing exporting countries, which is silent and gradual. Vietnamese Robusta coffee, as a key supplier that no one can match, can easily miss the beat if growers and dealers follow the “bad harvest” mentality and forget to be alert. It should be understood that if one place has a bad harvest, another place still has abundant supply.”

Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-272024-bat-tang-tro-lai-huong-den-moc-125000-dongkg-329412.html