(kontumtv.vn) – In 2024, coffee prices will increase by an average of over 50%, helping Vietnam's coffee export turnover to exceed the 5 billion USD mark for the first time.

Photo caption
Vietnam is currently the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee. Illustration photo: Tuan Anh/VNA

Vietnam is currently the world’s largest producer of Robusta coffee, with about 97% of its output being Robusta, while the remainder is made up of Arabica and other specialty varieties. Although domestic coffee consumption is increasing, exports remain the main source of income for the Vietnamese coffee industry. In 2024, an average increase of over 50% in coffee prices has helped Vietnam’s coffee export turnover surpass the $5 billion mark for the first time.

Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association, Chairman of the Board of Directors, General Director of Intimex Group, assessed: 2024 is a special year for the coffee industry and for the first time, Vietnamese coffee prices are the highest in the world. The export price of Robusta coffee is higher than the price of Arabica coffee and this has never happened before.

Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam’s coffee export prices have been increasing continuously. In January, the export price of coffee was just over 3,000 USD/ton, and by October it had jumped to 5,855 USD/ton. Thus, in just 10 months, the price of this commodity has increased by over 90%.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the average export price of coffee in the first 11 months of 2024 is estimated at 4,037 USD/ton, an increase of 56.9% over the same period in 2023.

As a result, coffee exports in the first 11 months of 2024 reached nearly 1.2 million tons with a turnover of 4.84 billion USD; although down 15.4% in volume, export value increased 32.8% over the same period in 2023. Germany, Italy and Spain are the three largest coffee consuming markets of Vietnam. Coffee exports grew in all markets in the group of 15 largest export markets; in which, the strongest increase was in the two markets of Malaysia and the Philippines, both increasing more than 2 times.

Vietnam has just entered the 2024-2025 coffee crop year, but looking back at the 2023-2024 coffee crop year, Vietnam's coffee exports have also reached a new milestone. Although coffee export output decreased by over 12% to 1.46 million tons of coffee, the turnover increased by over 33%, reaching 5.43 billion USD. This is the highest export turnover in a coffee crop year ever and the first time coffee exports in a coffee crop year have exceeded the 5 billion USD mark.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, the new coffee harvest has begun since November, and Vietnam's coffee output this year is expected to reach about 1.6 million tons. In this crop, Vietnam's domestic coffee consumption is forecast to reach 270,000 - 300,000 tons. The increase in domestic demand combined with low production output could significantly affect the supply of raw materials for export.

Meanwhile, according to experts, Brazil has now finished its coffee harvest, and coffee growers in this country are currently limiting sales and waiting to see how the next crop will produce after flowering. Therefore, with the world's second position in coffee exports, the coffee market from now until the end of the first quarter of 2025 depends on coffee growing countries in the Northern Hemisphere, especially Vietnam.

That is why, although it is the harvest season, domestic coffee prices are still on the rise. Farmers in the Central Highlands are not in a hurry to sell this year due to their stable financial situation thanks to good revenue from other agricultural products with good prices such as durian, pepper, etc.

Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said: Vietnam's coffee exports still have many advantages thanks to increased supply due to the new harvest season of 2024-2025 and high export prices. It is forecasted that the whole year's coffee export turnover will set a record at 5.5 billion USD.

Although the export price of coffee is high, at times trading up to nearly 5,000 USD/ton, Mr. Trinh Duc Minh - Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association said that the price of Vietnamese Robusta is too high, making importers cautious. In the short term, they still need Vietnamese Robusta, because consumers are familiar with the taste. But if the high price lasts, importers may change and it will affect exports. The domestic coffee price of about 100,000 VND/kg will harmonize the interests of all parties and help Vietnamese coffee develop sustainably.

Mr. Do Ha Nam expressed that we should not expect agricultural product prices to rise too high. Because when prices exceed the world's general consumption, they will change their consumption habits. Price trends should move in a stable direction. This is the time to move in a stable price direction and this is also beneficial for growers, processing and exporting enterprises as well as in line with general consumer demand.

“Customers complain that Vietnamese coffee prices are too high. That is why buyers and roasters are more cautious in placing orders. Every year, at the beginning of the season, the number of orders is usually very high, but this year it is the opposite. Buyers also buy short-term, only when there is demand, instead of buying long-term contracts like before,” said Mr. Do Ha Nam.

Recently, the European Parliament (EC) approved a proposal to postpone the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) for 12 months. Accordingly, large import-export enterprises must comply with the EUDR from December 30, 2025, while micro and small enterprises have a deadline of June 30, 2026.

Vietnamese coffee will be strongly affected by the above regulation. According to experts, with the delay in implementation, coffee producing countries, including Vietnam, will have more time to fully comply with the new standards. At the same time, importing countries in the EU will not need to import massively by the end of 2024; supply and demand of coffee in the world market will temporarily stabilize.

Bich Hong (Vietnam News Agency)