Why is the gas market not "rolling" as predicted?

Opening the morning trading session on March 21, 2024, today's gas price in the world market increased by 0.06% to 1.70 USD/mmBTU for natural gas contracts for delivery in April 2024.

Gas price today March 21, 2024

European gas prices could fall as low as $6.70 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this summer, according to a Wood Mackenzie report. The gas market started 2024 on a more optimistic note as cold weather “rushed” across Europe, while industrial demand maintained a recovery trend, rising 12% year-on-year in January and around 6% in February.

WoodMac forecasts household gas demand in Europe to grow by 12 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2024, under normal weather conditions, while industrial demand will grow by 5.5 bcm as the EU economy recovers in the second half of this year.

However, the amount of gas used for power generation will be 9 bcm less, implying that overall European demand will increase by 9 bcm. That will not, however, be enough to drive up gas prices with reserves at record highs.

As the European gas withdrawal season nears its end, inventories stood at 70.78 bcm as of March 10, 5.61 bcm higher than a year earlier and 21.41 bcm above the five-year average, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered had predicted that the end-of-season inventory level would exceed 68 bcm.

In the domestic market, the retail gas price in March 2024 continued to be adjusted upward from March 1. Thus, the domestic retail gas price has increased for the third consecutive month since the beginning of the year.

Specifically, the retail price of Petrolimex gas cylinders (including VAT) in the Hanoi market is 460,740 VND/12kg household cylinder; 1,842,760 VND/48kg industrial cylinder, respectively increasing 2,640 VND/12kg cylinder and 10,560 VND/48kg cylinder (including VAT) compared to the previous month. In the Southern region, some agents in Tan Binh district also said that Perolimex Saigon gas company, Total gas company... also increased the price by 2,000 VND/12kg cylinder.

Ho Chi Minh City Energy Import-Export Joint Stock Company informed that gas prices of City Petro, Vina Pacific Petro, Vimexco will increase by VND2,000/12kg cylinder and VND8,000/50kg cylinder. Accordingly, the retail price to consumers will not exceed VND481,000/12kg cylinder and VND2,002,500/50kg cylinder.

Similarly, Saigon Petro Company Limited increased by VND2,000/12kg cylinder, the maximum retail price to consumers is not more than VND443,000/12kg cylinder.

At the same time, Southern Gas Trading Joint Stock Company (Gas South) announced an increase in retail gas prices in March 2024, applicable to the following gas brands: Gas Dau Khi, VT-Gas, A Gas, Dak Gas, JP Gas, Dang Phuoc Gas. The specific increase is 167 VND/kg compared to the previous month, equivalent to an increase of 2,000 VND/12kg cylinder and 7,500 VND/45kg cylinder. With this increase, the retail gas price of Gas South to consumers is 471,900 VND/12kg cylinder and 1,770,831 VND/45kg cylinder (including VAT).

According to gas trading companies, the increase in the USD/VND exchange rate has caused the price of imported gas to Vietnam to increase. In the first 3 months of 2024, gas prices have continuously increased, with a total increase of 13,000 VND/12kg cylinder.

Currently, domestic gas supply only meets about 60% of consumer demand, so domestic gas prices are still affected by the international market.

Information for reference only!

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-gas-hom-nay-ngay-2132024-vi-sao-thi-truong-khi-dot-khong-cuon-song-nhu-du-bao-309884.html