US intelligence downgraded, but nuclear concerns remain in the US and the West

(CLO) US intelligence has underestimated Russia's nuclear attack capabilities, but concerns about Russia's statements that it will respond with all its might if the West threatens its territorial integrity remain in Washington and the West.

Intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded that a nuclear escalation is unlikely, despite the United States and some other allied nations easing restrictions on Ukraine using its long-range weapons to strike at Russian territory, five sources familiar with U.S. intelligence told Reuters.

“The assessments are consistent: ATACMS will not change Russia’s nuclear calculus,” said a US congressional official briefed on the intelligence, referring to the 195-mile-range US missile that the US has just allowed Ukraine to attack Russia.

A Yars nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile is launched during a test from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region, Russia on October 29, 2024. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry

US and Western concerns about nuclear escalation

Last week, Russia launched a medium-range ballistic missile that travels 11 times the speed of sound, is nearly impossible to intercept, and is nuclear-capable. Analysts said it was a warning to Washington and its European allies. But according to US intelligence, that still does not change that conclusion.

New intelligence has helped ease concerns that allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia could put the United States at risk and risk nuclear war, US officials said.

US officials initially opposed the move, citing concerns about escalation and uncertainty about how Mr Putin would respond. Some in the White House and Pentagon argued that allowing Ukraine to use missiles to strike inside Russia would put Kiev, the US and its allies at unprecedented risk, leading Russia to retaliate with nuclear weapons.

While some officials still believe that fears of escalation, including nuclear fears, are overblown, they acknowledge that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous and that nuclear escalation is not impossible.

“The risk of escalation has never been less than there. The concern is greater now,” said Angela Stent, director of Eurasia, Russia, and East European studies at Georgetown University.

Fears of nuclear escalation have been a factor in the thinking of US officials since Russia's conflict with Ukraine began in early 2022. CIA Director William Burns said there was a real risk that Russia could use nuclear weapons against Ukraine by the end of 2022.

"Can't rule anything out"

Speaking on Wednesday, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev did not rule out the possibility that Russia would have to attack NATO military bases in the event of escalation due to the use of Western-made long-range weapons against Russia.

“If the conflict develops in an escalation scenario, nothing can be ruled out, because NATO member states are really fully involved in this conflict,” he said in an interview with Al Arabiya.

He made the comment in response to a question about whether Russia could strike military centers in Romania and Poland if Western-made long-range missiles continue to be used against the country.

"The military-political signal is clear - we have communicated it to both the United States and its allies, who have taken practical steps to prepare for the deployment and deployment of medium- and short-range missiles in various regions of the world," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a press briefing. "I believe that they should focus on the signal, the message that we have sent."

Meanwhile, Mikhail Kovalchuk, President of Russia's Kurchatov Institute National Research Center, said that Russia's nuclear capabilities are a guarantee of its sovereignty and the US understands the consequences of using these capabilities.

"We are one of the few sovereign states, not to say the only one. Because only we can turn America into nuclear ashes...", he commented, noting that Russia should continue to strengthen this capability.

Hoang Anh (according to TASS, Reuters)

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/tinh-bao-my-ha-thap-kha-nang-nga-tan-cong-hat-nhan-nhung-moi-lo-van-con-o-phuong-tay-post323212.html