Coffee prices today (June 17) on the world market turned down. Of which, the price of robusta coffee returned to 2,796 USD/ton after decreasing 0.29% (equivalent to 8 USD).
Update world coffee prices
According to records, coffee prices on the world market have turned to decrease. Specifically, the online price of robusta coffee in London for delivery in July 2023 was recorded at 2,796 USD/ton after decreasing by 0.29% (equivalent to 8 USD).
The price of Arabica coffee for July 2023 delivery in New York was at 184.9 US cents/pound after increasing 1.12% (equivalent to 2.1 US cents) at the time of survey at 6:50 a.m. (Vietnam time).
Photo: Anh Thu
In its latest report, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecast that in the 2022-2023 crop year, global Arabica coffee output is expected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags. Meanwhile, Robusta output is expected to decrease by 2.1% to 72.7 million bags. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Vietnam's coffee output in the 2022-2023 crop year will decrease by 6% compared to the previous crop year, to 29.7 million bags (60 kg/bag). The world's largest Robusta producer will have its lowest harvest in four years due to higher production costs (labor, fertilizer) and farmers' tendency to switch to more profitable crops such as avocado, durian and passion fruit.
It will not be until the 2023-2024 crop year that Vietnam's coffee output can recover 5% to 31.3 million bags, according to USDA's assessment.
Meanwhile, supplies from Brazil, the second-largest producer of robusta, were significantly lower, with exports reaching 0.4 million bags in the first four months of 2023 compared to nearly 0.5 million bags in the same period in 2022 and 1.24 million bags previously.
USDA forecasts Brazil's robusta coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop year (July 2023 to June 2024) to reach only 21.7 million bags, down 5% compared to the 2022-2023 crop year. The reason is due to lower yields and poor weather conditions due to lower rainfall in the early stages of the crop cycle.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the Association of Indonesian Coffee Producers and Exporters (AEKI) expects the country’s coffee output to fall by up to 20% in 2023 compared to the previous season, to 9.6 million bags due to heavy rains in major growing areas. Indonesia is currently the world’s third-largest producer of robusta coffee.
In addition, the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is expected to develop globally in the second half of this year, also poses a greater risk to robusta than arabica. This weather phenomenon will disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns, which could further tighten supplies and increase robusta prices.
The world's two largest robusta coffee producers, Vietnam and Brazil, could suffer yield losses if El Nino develops strongly, analysts and weather experts say.
As of the end of May, certified robusta coffee stocks on the London exchange were 1.4 million bags (60kg), up 5.9% from the previous month. In contrast, arabica stocks on the New York exchange fell 11.2% to 0.66 million bags.
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