GDP growth above 7%: Pressure has turned the impossible into possible!

Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 is expected to reach over 7%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly and the Government and far exceeding the forecasts of domestic and foreign economic organizations.

Stick to growth goals

Reporting at the National Conference held on December 1, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh forecast that 15/15 socio-economic targets for 2024 will be achieved and exceed the set plan. Of which, the GDP growth target for the whole year is estimated to reach over 7%, among the few countries with high growth rates in the region and the world.

In 2024, Vietnam's GDP is forecast to grow by over 7%. Photo: ST

Remember in early 2024, when Congress set a target? growth GDP 6-6.5% for the whole year, many opinions say that this is too high a target, some even say that Vietnam cannot achieve this ambitious growth target. Some domestic and foreign economic experts have also proposed that Vietnam should lower the growth target for 2024 to reduce pressure on ministries, branches, localities and the economy. Because in fact, in recent years, Vietnam has set a higher growth target than the actual achievement. Specifically, in 2023, Vietnam set a GDP growth target of 6.5% but in reality, it only achieved 5.05%.

However, despite acknowledging that the economy still faces many difficulties and challenges, the Government remains steadfast in its growth target of 6-6.5% in 2024. Specifically, at the end of the first quarter of 2024, after the first quarter GDP growth reached 5.66%, the Ministry of Planning and Investment proposed two growth scenarios for the whole year. In scenario 1, GDP growth for the whole year reaches about 6%, below the target set by the National Assembly. In scenario 2, economic growth for the whole year reaches 6.5%, above the target set by the National Assembly.

However, instead of choosing the less challenging scenario, Government still steadfast with the 6.5% growth scenario. To achieve this target, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh requested ministries, branches and localities to perform at the highest and best level, striving to achieve and exceed the goals and targets in 2024, especially the growth target of about 6.5%.

With a growth rate of over 7%, Vietnam has become the fastest growing economy in ASEAN. Photo ST

Growth forecast far exceeds target

Thanks to the Government's drastic direction, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 has accelerated, estimated at 6.93%, higher than the same period in 2023 and only lower than the growth rate of 7.99% in the second quarter of 2022 in the period 2020-2024. From the above results, in Resolution No. 108/NQ-CP of the regular Government meeting in June 2024 and the Government's online conference with localities, the Government has determined to strive for a growth target of about 7% for the whole year of 2024.

To achieve this goal, the Government has set out 10 key tasks and solutions. In particular, it is necessary to continue to prioritize promoting growth associated with macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances of the economy. Further promoting disbursement of public investment capital, 3 national target programs, promptly handling difficulties and obstacles, speeding up the progress of key infrastructure projects, and well organizing the 500-day emulation program to strive to complete expressway projects.

Focus on renewing traditional growth drivers (investment, export and consumption) and have policies to promote new growth drivers from institutions, mechanisms and policies; regional economic development, regional linkages, smart cities; digital transformation, green transformation, circular economy, sharing economy, high value-added sectors such as chips, semiconductors, AI, etc.

With the above efforts, GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 achieved an impressive result, at 7.40%, bringing GDP in the first 9 months to 6.82%. With the above results, many experts and economic organizations have forecast that Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 could exceed 7%, which is far exceeding the target set by the National Assembly and the Government at the beginning of the year, which is a growth rate of 6-6.5%.

HSBC Bank recently made a forecast, economic growth Vietnam will reach 7% in 2024, becoming the fastest growing economy in ASEAN and creating new GDP equivalent to the Netherlands. Even based on the basic internal strength of the economy such as agriculture, industrial production, consumption and tourism regaining growth momentum, economic expert Dinh Trong Thinh also forecasted that Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 could reach 7.2-7.3%.

At the National Conference held on December 1, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized: Thanks to the drastic participation of the entire political system, the business community and the people of the whole country under the leadership of the Party, headed by the General Secretary; the socio-economic situation continues to recover positively, each month is better than the previous month, and the growth of each quarter is higher than the previous quarter.

Thus, thanks to the steadfastness with the set growth target, combined with the drastic participation of the entire political system, Vietnam's GDP growth, which was considered difficult to achieve the growth target of 6.5% in 2024, is now forecast to reach a GDP growth rate of over 7%. Clearly, with pressure and extraordinary efforts, Vietnam can turn the impossible into possible.

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